Crypto Market Pulse - April 21, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• China GDP Growth Rate YoY 5.4% vs 5.1% exp
• UK inflation rate YoY 2.6% vs 2.7% exp
• US Retail sales MoM 1.4% vs 1.3% exp
• Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 2.75% as expected
• ECB cuts rates by 25bps to 2.4% as expected (Deposit facility rate to 2.25%)
• Powell’s speech: tariff-driven inflation might linger longer than expected, the Fed will act depending on whether employment or inflation is further off track
• Tariff Updates:
  • US tariffs on China increase to 245% whilst China said they will ignore further increases, calling them “meaningless”,
  • Trump claims Japan talks saw “big progress”, call with Mexico’s president “very productive”, and says he is reluctant to keep raising tariffs on China; however, there has been no concrete, tangible progress
  • Nvidia faces fresh restrictions on the export of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China
• Raydium introduces pumpfun competitor “Launchlab”

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY continues to decline, with the downward trend still ongoing

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After roughly a week of sideways consolidation, BTC has finally seen the daily MA10 catch up and break upward. This short-term rally could bring some upside potential and positive signals.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Even though BTC has formed a relatively clear rally base, ETH is still struggling in a sideways consolidation phase, remaining relatively weak and showing no signs of strength.

ETH/BTC

Amid a potential BTC rebound, ETH has failed to demonstrate notable strength and remains comparatively weak. We maintain the view that BTC will sustain its outperformance over ETH.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 daily chart has closely tracked BTC's price action, and with BTC breaking out of its consolidation range, TOTAL3 has also breached its key trendline. While this points to a possible short-term rebound and a halt in the downtrend, a durable uptrend would still need stronger long-term basing.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

While TOTAL3 and BTC display bullish trends, altcoins still suffer from lackluster liquidity. This suggests BTC may maintain its relative strength over altcoins in the short term.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

As projected last week, the leverage ratio has trended upward in tandem with BTC and TOTAL3. This could signal a potential shift in retail investor sentiment, possibly leading to increased market engagement.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

Open Interest declined with the decline in BTC price after Powell’s comments, likely as longs exited their positions. OI then gradually increased again over the week, with a gradual grind up in price.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Perps funding turned negative last week as BTC reached the short-term top before turning positive again as the price declined.

Funding is grinding up again with BTC price spiking on Monday Asia open.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

There was a gradual trend towards shorts before shooting towards longs on the Monday Asia Open, along with the spike in BTC.

BTC LIQUIDATIONS

Liquidations of around $30m were observed in the Monday Asia Open across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Deribit.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

Sharp drop in OI post Powell’s speech, along with the decline in Eth price. OI has since increased back with the slow grind up in price.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Perps funding turned negative when ETH declined to its picobottom, before turning positive again as price stabilized and increased.

Unlike BTC, we are not seeing a significant increase in OI with the increase in ETH price on Monday Asia Open.

ETH Long/Short Ratio

Similarly, there was a gradual trend towards shorts before shooting towards longs on the Monday Asia Open, along with the spike in price.

SUMMARY

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 99, potentially supporting risk assets like equities and crypto if inflation remains contained.
• BTC held up better than equities (S&P 500 fell ~3.5%), suggesting shifting correlations or its role as a defensive asset.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal