Crypto Market Pulse - February 24, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• FOMC minutes revealed that Federal Reserve officials would like to see inflation decrease more before lowering interest rates.
• The minutes also revealed concern about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on reducing inflation.
• US S&P Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected at 51.6 (vs 51.5 expected), while Services PMI was lower than expected at 49.7 (vs 53 expected).
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment also came in lower than unexpected at 64.7 (vs 67.8 expected), while Michigan's 5-year inflation expectations were at 3.5% (vs 3.3% expected), showing stagflationary concerns as tariff concerns continue to weigh on the economy.
• Standard Chartered Bank, Animoca Brands, and HKT established a joint venture to issue HKD-backed Stablecoin.
• ECB reported intentions to establish a Blockchain-based payment system.
• SEC agrees in principle to dismiss the enforcement case on Coinbase.
• Bybit sees $1.5 billion worth of its assets, primarily in ETH, stolen by hackers.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

After forming a small head-and-shoulders top pattern on the daily chart, the DXY now appears to be finding support below and potentially developing a larger-scale head-and-shoulders pattern. The current weakness in the U.S. dollar could soon enter a corrective phase.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still hovering within the 95k − 100k price range. Before determining whether this is a top, we need to wait for a clear directional breakout—either to the downside or the upside.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Despite the negative news this week, ETH has continued its previous rebound momentum. Although the upward movement is not very strong, the price is still rising slowly. We will pay close attention to how the price behaves near the trendline.

ETH/BTC

Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH continued to outperform BTC this week, and trading volume also picked up significantly.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Last week, we focused on whether the price could break out near the trendline. However, what we are currently seeing is a downward reversal and sideways consolidation. Under conditions of still-low trading volume, TOTAL3 may face further declines.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Under conditions where BTC's price is consolidating sideways and TOTAL3 continues to decline, the TOTAL3/BTC ratio is further dropping to seek support.

SUMMARY

• Weighed down by the Fed's delayed rate cut expectations and stagflation concerns, BTC may remain range-bound in the short term, with direction dependent on subsequent inflation/economic data guidance.
• Despite the impact of the Bybit hack, ETH quickly recovered to ~$2.8k. Moving forward, attention should be paid to potential selling pressure from the stolen ETH and the progress of exchanges' anti-money laundering efforts.
• Constrained by BTC's sideways movement and the declining TOTAL3/BTC ratio, altcoins remain under pressure, with further deleveraging risks in a low-liquidity environment needing caution.
• With macro policies and crypto black swan events intertwined, the market requires "hard data" to validate the stagflation narrative, while also guarding against micro-level risks at the protocol/exchange level that could impact specific assets.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal