Crypto Market Pulse - June 18, 2024

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• U.S. CPI increased 0% MoM and 3.3% YoY in May, lower than 0.1% and 3.4% estimated. U.S. Core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY in May, lower than the estimated 0.3% and 3.5% estimated.
• Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged; 'Dot Plot' indicates only one 25 bps cut in 2024.
• U.S. PPI fell 0.2% MoM in May, v.s. 0.1% increase estimated. The YoY increase is 2.2%. U.S. Core PPI increased 0% MoM in May v.s. estimated 0.2% and the YoY increase is 3.2%.
• U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said that he expects the approval of the ETH spot ETF S-1 may be completed by the end of this summer.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst expects the spot Ethereum ETF launch date to be brought forward to July 2.
• MicroStrategy announced raising another $500 million using convertible notes to buy Bitcoin.
• Binance surpasses 200 million users.
• Swiss regulators have shut down FlowBank SA and initiated bankruptcy proceedings. FlowBank was a banking partner for Binance.
• Curve founder Michael Egorov repays 93% of $10M in bad debt and plans to repay the rest shortly after his CRV collateralized loan faces liquidation.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still trading just under the top of the range. For markets to go higher, it would be better if DXY failed and traded lower into the larger 100-106 range.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX has been resilient at the 13 level, which has marked the bottom almost always. However, it can take quite a while for it to pop up again. This should give markets room to run again if DXY gets weaker.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still within the 60-73k range. For now, it's just a waiting game until BTC exits this large price range.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

The same thing applies to ETH consolidation right under resistance. Also, here, it's just waiting until ETH clears the 4k area. With the odds increased for ETH spot ETFs to go live in early July, this should pick up quite soon.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has been consolidating since the ETF approval rally. With the spot ETF likely going live in early July, it should pick up steam again quite soon.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still slow. A lot of them are bleeding out at the moment. There doesn't seem to be enough leverage for large liquidations on them.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still building its larger price structure. As long as the green zone holds, alts should regain dominance over BTC in the not-so-far future. This seems in line with the ETH ETF to go live in early July.

SUMMARY

• The market seems to be in limbo, waiting for either BTC to clear the 60-73k range or the ETH ETF to go live. Until then, alts are seemingly bleeding out in anticipation of volatility expansion on the majors.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove and Patrick Li.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal