Crypto Market Pulse - November 04, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

The final week of October was characterized by cautious consolidation as crypto markets digested mixed macro signals, fading ETF momentum, and FOMC volatility. Bitcoin traded between $106K and $115K, slipping roughly 4% for the week as ETF outflows and renewed macro uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The price hovered near its 50-day simple moving average, a level that has historically acted as a key pivot for trend direction. Despite the weakness, the market structure remained orderly, with leverage still light and speculative positioning muted. Funding rates stayed neutral, suggesting that traders have largely de-risked and are waiting for clarity before re-engaging.

The macro highlight of the week was the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps, setting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Fed chair Jerome Powell maintained a balanced tone, acknowledging signs of a softening labor market while noting that inflation remains elevated. Markets reacted with the classic “sell the news” move as highlighted in our previous weekly update. The decision confirmed the Fed’s dovish pivot but also underscored uncertainty around the pace of future easing. Powell’s emphasis on a “balance of risks” suggested that further cuts remain possible if labor data continues to weaken, a scenario that could favor crypto and other risk assets in Q4.

ETF flows reflected this cautious sentiment. U.S. spot BTC ETFs showed $149.3M net inflows on October 27 and $202.4M on October 28, before reversing midweek with heavy outflows of $470.7M, $488.4M, and $191.6M over the following three sessions. This pattern signaled that institutions remain engaged but are pausing aggressive accumulation amid macro uncertainty. On-chain metrics corroborated the shift, BTC spot CVD indicated aggressive buying near the $106K lows before tapering around mid-range, while futures CVD stayed flat, showing that spot activity led price action. Open interest slightly declined, confirming reduced leverage.

Meanwhile, BTC options positioning on Deribit remained steady, with concentrated strikes at $100K for puts and $120K for calls, creating a defined short-term range. Most of the upcoming expiries cluster around November 7, suggesting potential volatility toward week’s end.

In the altcoin space, TOTAL3 (crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) slipped to $970B before recovering to the $1T mid-range, showing that sentiment remains fragile but intact. ETH traded between $3.7K–$4.0K, closing relatively flat for the week, supported by steady spot demand but capped by broader risk aversion. Layer-1s such as SOL, AVAX, and ADA underperformed, while BTC dominance climbed to around 60%, reflecting investors’ preference for liquidity and lower-risk exposure during macro uncertainty.

Macro conditions reinforced this cautious tone. Treasury yields eased slightly, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened modestly following Powell’s remarks, tempering risk appetite across global markets. Equities remained range-bound, with S&P 500 earnings and macro data (PMI and labor reports) setting the near-term tone. The crypto market largely tracked global risk behavior rather than leading it, reflecting its integration with broader liquidity cycles.

Looking ahead, this week’s key macro releases include the U.S. PMI data, Job Openings (JOLTS), and several major central bank rate announcements globally. These are expected to broadly align with the Fed’s dovish tone, reinforcing the global pivot toward monetary easing. A softer jobs print could also validate dovish expectations, potentially allowing BTC to stabilize and attempt a move back toward the $112K-$114K zone in a ‘relief rally’. Conversely, strong data could keep BTC anchored near the $106K-$108K range as markets recalibrate.

• BTC price action: Retraced from range highs near $116.4K to $106.3K, then rebounded toward the mid-range around $110K. Overall, price remained within the established range.
• BTC Spot ETF flows:
  • Oct 27: +$149.3M net inflows
  • Oct 28: +$202.4M net inflows
  • Oct 29–31: Significant outflows of $470.7M, $488.4M, and $191.6M, respectively.
    
    Indicates growing caution among ETF investors, though early November flows will be important to watch.
• Ant Group filed to register a series of virtual assets, stablecoin, and blockchain-related trademarks.
• JPYC, a yen-denominated stablecoin, officially launched.
• Western Union announced plans to release a USD-backed stablecoin on Solana in H1 2026.
• Grayscale launches Solana Trust ETF (GSOL), which offers exposure to SOL and staking rewards.
• Privacy coins gained momentum, with XMR up ~10.7% and ZEC up ~26%.
• US–China relations: Presidents Trump and Xi reported a productive meeting, agreeing on China’s purchases of US farm and energy products.
• Rising focus on x402, a new crypto payment standard for AI Agents.
• Coinbase posted a strong increase in net income year-over-year.
• Perp DEX war not over, with CZ posting that he used personal funds to buy ASTER at an average of ~$0.9x.
• ETHBTC traded in a range, SOL is still trading in a range, and AVAX is starting to show signs of a downtrend.
• Leverage metrics remain healthy, with funding rates neutralized and open interest nearing daily/weekly range lows.
• Stablecoin market cap has been flat over the past 7 days, but up 1.67% over the past 30 days.
• Macro backdrop: The US 10-year yield climbed to 4.083%.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC experienced a relatively deep pullback but remains above the key 107k level. Given the series of consecutive drops preceding this move, this area has become particularly critical. A decisive break below would confirm a drop-base-drop structure, signaling potential continuation of the broader downside trend.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH reversed after retesting the 4.3k level, with key support now situated around 3.7k. A breakdown below this zone would establish a base within a downtrend, suggesting continuation pressure and a potential shift toward lower structural levels.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC extended its downward trend along its moving averages. While ETH has seen a reversal after a retest and turned downward, BTC is approaching a potential breakdown of a key level, together indicating relative weakness in ETH performance against BTC in the near term.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 continues to show pronounced moving average resistance, with a drop base structure forming near recent lows. The 960B zone is a critical support level. A breakdown below this area could trigger another leg lower across mid-caps and alts, while a sustained hold could support a rebound phase if BTC and ETH remain stable.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Similar to ETH/BTC, TOTAL3/BTC continues with its downward trend along its moving averages.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The ratio remains within the defined range, holding above the green support zone. A breakdown below this area would signal renewed deleveraging pressure and could accelerate downside momentum across alt markets. Therefore, this support region is particularly critical to maintain.

SUMMARY

• The market stabilized after last week’s tariff-driven flush, with BTC holding firm around $110–118K as leverage reset and liquidity normalized.
  
• ETF and stablecoin flows showed cautious re-entry, signaling that institutions are accumulating but avoiding aggressive risk-taking.
  
• Altcoins lagged while BTC dominance rose, leaving the market cleaner and positioned for a potential Q4 recovery if macro data remain supportive.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro