Crypto Market Pulse - November 11, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week, ISM Non-Manufacturing data exceeded expectations, showing continued resilience in U.S. services. The VIX stayed below 20 despite midweek volatility, while the USDX remained under 100, as the market continued to price in a dovish Fed. The U.S. 10Y yield held steady around 4.1%, signaling indecision as markets await further macro data.

In terms of crypto, BTC retraced from $108K to $99K, retesting the June wick, before rebounding toward its previous range lows (~$106K), now acting as resistance. A sustained breakout above that level would be constructive; otherwise, a new lower range could form.

ETF flows showed continued caution, net outflows across most sessions (−$186.5M, −$577.7M, −$137M, +$240M, −$558.4M), indicating tepid institutional demand. BTC spot CVD showed strong accumulation around $99K, while futures CVD stayed muted, suggesting spot flows are still driving price action. In altcoins, TOTAL3 (crypto market cap ex-BTC/ETH) dipped to ~$875B before rebounding toward ~$975B, indicating that BTC’s direction remains the key driver for broader market sentiment.

Looking ahead, this week’s focus turns to U.S. CPI, jobless claims, and the 10Y Treasury Note auction, key releases likely to shape Fed policy expectations and investor appetite for current yields. Additional catalysts include President Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend”, the Federal Budget Balance (Thursday), a U.S. government funding deal, and several Fed speaker events. On the MM side, volatility has eased post-FOMC, though bears seem to be in control. We’re maintaining tight depth and efficient spreads while monitoring for directional flow as catalysts emerge.

• BTC made a retrace from 108K to 99K, testing the wick back we made in June earlier this year. We see that price started to bounce at that region and is making its way back to its previous range lows, which now is serving as resistance, and is currently trading below that at ~$105K.
• BTC Spot ETF flows show -186.5M USD net outflows on 3rd Nov, followed by -577.7M and -137M net outflows on 4th and 5th Nov. On 6th Nov, we had 240M net inflow, followed by 558.4M net outflow the next day. We had mostly net outflows, signaling ETF buyers are still showing caution.
• Animoca Brands has filed for a U.S. listing.
• U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) marked its largest single-day increase in a year (Nov 3), rising by 18 bps.
• L2Beat: Rollups' average daily TPS has surged repeatedly, making all-time highs, driven by Lighter.
• Robinhood Q3 2025 earnings with net revenue of $1.27 billion, exceeding expectations.
• Coinbase added ASTER to its roadmap.
• President Trump announced the tariff dividend, a payment of at least $2,000 per American.
• Fox News: Deal reported reached to end the US government shutdown.
• ETHBTC is making lower lows, potentially forming a new range lower, SOL is breaking down to a new range, and AVAX is bouncing on the daily.
• Leverage metrics are healthy, funding neutralized, and BTC OI at daily/weekly range lows.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~-0.68% last 7 days, while 30 days still shows a 0.21% increase.
• Macro backdrop: US 10Y yield increased to 4.136%.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

As we anticipated last week, after breaking below 107K, the price dropped sharply and found support near 99K before rebounding for a retest. At this level, we need to watch closely whether the market will continue downward after the retest or consolidate here before resuming its upward move.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is trading within a support-resistance flip zone ahead of its retest. The previous low appears to have established a short-term bottom. While further consolidation may be needed before any sustained move higher, we don’t anticipate the price breaking below that prior low.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has shown signs of reversal at the key level we highlighted, which could indicate emerging strength in ETH.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Although TOTAL3 has shown signs of stabilizing, the rebound momentum remains weak, and the overall bearish trend has not yet reversed.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3/BTC has printed its first strong bullish candle, breaking above the long-term moving average resistance. We’re optimistic that this upward trend can continue.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

Despite the broad market rebound, capital inflows have shown limited sensitivity to this move. With increasing macro uncertainty, investors are waiting for a stronger catalyst to drive meaningful momentum.

SUMMARY

• Despite short-term rebounds, leverage and capital inflows remain low as investors await clearer macro signals.
  
• BTC recovered from its 99K support after breaking below 107K; However, markets seem to be watching the price action to see if it consolidates or retreats in a downtrend.
  
• ETH seems to be forming a short-term bottom, with ETH/BTC showing early signs of a reversal and relative strength.
  
• TOTAL3 is holding support, but momentum remains weak. Early signs of optimism are starting to show in the BTC pair performance as well.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro