Crypto Market Pulse - November 18, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week was volatile for risk assets, BTC dropped below $94K, the lowest price since April, as odds for a December rate cut fell below 50%. One of the main reasons seems to be the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, which postponed important economic releases, leaving the Fed feeling as if they are “flying blind” going into FOMC. The U.S. Census Bureau plans to release the backlog of delayed reports now that the shutdown has ended; however, this might be too late for comfort for the Federal Reserve. As a result, bond yields rose higher with the 10-YR yields rising 40 bps to ~4.5%. Traders adjusted their views, factoring in a somewhat hawkish Fed stance and renewed inflation worries due to US tariff policy. The USDX remained stable, showing a market trying to adjust to tighter-for-longer expectations.

In terms of crypto, BTC Spot ETF flows shows approximately 1.15M USD net inflows on 10th Nov, 524M net inflows on 11th Nov, -278M net outflows on 12th Nov, -869.8M net outflows on 13th Nov, -492M net outflows on 14th Nov. We had some net inflows on Tuesday, followed by net outflows throughout the week. ETF buyers are derisking. As for the altcoin market health, TOTAL3 (Total Market Cap of Crypto, which excludes BTC/ETH) made a retrace from the highs at 994.6B on Tuesday to make a higher low at 897.4B on Friday.

Looking at the week ahead, we will get the FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify where policymakers really stand, along with unemployment, NFP, and Services PMI - all crucial factors in deciding if the Fed can still support another cut this year. Additionally, NVDA reports earnings after the close on Wednesday, which are likely to overshadow the US economic data releases and serve as a litmus test for the bullish market this quarter. A below-expected earnings report could deal a blow to the bulls and serve as a headwind for risk assets going into year-end.

From a trading viewpoint, we are approaching this situation cautiously. Macro uncertainty is causing more erratic order flow, so focusing on depth, wider spreads, and defensive quoting is essential while meeting depth requirements. Until markets gain insight from the new data, we can expect BTC to continue trading within a wider range, with flows leaning towards a risk-off approach.

• 5 Spot XRP ETFs have appeared on the DTCC list, potential launch in the US later this month.
• Coinbase is launching a new platform to allow investors to purchase tokens before official listings, with Monad to be the first project to sell its token on the new platform.
• Uniswap proposed a governance upgrade to activate protocol fees, reduce total supply, and introduce a usage-based burn mechanism for its token.
• New rules providing a clear regulatory path for crypto ETPs to stake digital assets/distribute rewards announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen
• Lighter has raised $68 million in a funding round led by Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital, with participation from Haun Ventures and Robinhood.
• Bloomberg: JPMorgan officially launched JPM Coin, representing USD deposits held at the bank.
• Sui Foundation launched USDsui, a native stablecoin for the Sui network.
• HLP took over a POPCAT liquidation and lost ~$4.9M as POPCAT fell further, with Hyperliquid later manually closing the position. On-chain analysts claimed it was a deliberate attack on Hyperliquid.
• Solana's active addresses have fallen to a 12-month low.
• ETHBTC is in a local range, SOL is on a local downtrend, and AVAX is at local range lows.
• Most major fundings are neutral, and BTC OI is at daily/weekly range lows.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~-0.31% last 7 days, while 30 days still shows a ~-1.14% decrease.
• The US 10Y yield decreased to ~4.127% from the previous week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has now completed a textbook drop–base–drop structure at the key level we have been highlighting. The market retraced into the prior breakdown zone and then accelerated lower, ultimately extending toward the 94k area. At this point, we expect the price to stabilize initially. The move from the local top to the neckline and the subsequent leg from the neckline to 94k are essentially symmetrical, giving us a 1:1 measured move completion. From a structural perspective, this is where short momentum typically begins to lose efficiency and responsive buyers start to emerge. We will monitor whether stabilization here develops into a constructive base or simply a pause within a broader downtrend.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is also showing a very clear reversal at its key level. Similar to BTC, the market has responded exactly where it needed to, and the current price action suggests that this area is likely to form a local bottom. The reaction confirms that the earlier supply has been fully tested, and sellers are no longer pressing with the same efficiency. We are looking for stabilization here to validate the level and to see whether ETH can transition from a reactive bounce into a more constructive short-term trend.

ETH/BTC

ETH and BTC remain relatively balanced on a relative-value basis. Both assets have broken their key levels, retested them, and then moved lower in a synchronized fashion. The symmetry in the price response suggests that neither asset is meaningfully outperforming on this leg, and the cross is essentially tracking a neutral regime.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Consistent with what we highlighted last week, TOTAL3 continues to struggle to generate any independent momentum while the broader market remains in a defined downtrend. Structural headwinds are still intact, and without a shift in overall risk appetite, it is difficult for the asset class to decouple from BTC and ETH weakness. Our base case remains that price needs to retrace into the marked demand zone to find meaningful support. A constructive bottoming structure in that area would be the first indication that the trend is ready to inflect higher.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is showing its first meaningful sign of life after an extended period of relative underperformance. The cross has reclaimed its short-term moving average with a clean impulsive candle, suggesting that seller dominance is finally starting to fade. While this is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, the structure marks the strongest relative-strength expansion we have seen in months. If the cross can hold above this reclaim and build a higher low, it would set the stage for a more durable rotation into alts. Until then, we treat the move as an early signal rather than a completed shift, but the improvement in momentum is notable and worth tracking closely.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The Market Leverage Ratio has now retraced back into the primary demand zone that has anchored every major cyclical reset over the past two years. Structurally, the indicator is approaching the lower bound of its range, a zone that has repeatedly marked periods of forced deleveraging, risk reduction, and eventual stabilization. Each prior visit to this area has coincided with a washout in speculative positioning followed by a meaningful recovery in market breadth. At the current level, we expect leverage to begin bottoming as marginal sellers exhaust and liquidation pressure fades. A confirmed basing structure here would signal that the market has completed its deleveraging phase and is ready to rebuild risk.

SUMMARY

• Despite short-term rebounds, leverage and capital inflows remain low as investors await clearer macro signals.
  
• BTC recovered from its 99K support after breaking below 107K; however, markets seem to be watching the price action to see if it consolidates or retreats in a downtrend.
  
• ETH seems to be forming a short-term bottom, with ETH/BTC showing early signs of a reversal and relative strength.
  
• TOTAL3 is holding support, but momentum remains weak. Early signs of optimism are starting to show in the BTC pair performance as well

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro