Crypto Market Pulse - October 07, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week marked a key inflection for digital assets as BTC smashed through previous resistance to print a new ATH above $125.6K, peaking near $125.7K before a brief retrace. The breakout, fueled by roughly $3.24B in spot ETF inflows, the strongest weekly figure since Jun, highlights accelerating institutional conviction and reinforces BTC’s macro hedge narrative amid persistent policy uncertainty.

Macro data remained mixed. ISM Mfg slipped to 49.1 while Svcs held at 50.0, pointing to softer US momentum. Core PCE came in at +0.2% m/m (~2.7% y/y), keeping the Fed on its higher-for-longer trajectory as 10Y yields hovered around 4.1%. Trade tensions persisted after Trump renewed tariff threats on EU imports, while CN Caixin PMI at 51.2 hinted at stabilization in Asian manufacturing.

Crypto outperformed broader risk assets. BTC’s breakout to new highs underlines the strength of institutional flows and its expanding role as a macro hedge. Flows into ETH ETFs remained muted, and most alts underperformed as liquidity concentrated in majors. Despite macro headwinds, BTC’s ability to post fresh highs in a risk-off environment signals deepening structural demand.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on Sep CPI and PPI prints. Softer data could revive rate cut expectations and extend risk appetite, while hotter prints risk pushing yields higher and challenging sentiment. Developments in US-EU trade talks will also remain a key driver. Within crypto, ETF flow momentum and any incremental policy clarity, especially around stablecoins, could act as catalysts as BTC consolidates near ATH levels and sets the tone heading into Q4.

• BTC broke to a new ATH above $125.6K on Oct 5, briefly touching ~$125.7K, driven by record ETF inflows and accelerating institutional demand.
• Spot BTC ETFs saw ~$3.24B net inflows this week — the strongest since June — highlighting renewed institutional participation.
• MSTR holdings remained unchanged at 640,031 BTC as of Sep 29, maintaining its position as the largest corporate holder.
• U.S. 10Y yield hovered near ~4.1% as markets scaled back expectations for a Dec rate cut.
• Core PCE (Aug) +0.2% m/m (~2.7% y/y), underscoring sticky inflation and reinforcing the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
• Trump renewed threats of reciprocal tariffs on EU goods if trade talks fail, adding uncertainty to the macro backdrop.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC’s rally has been remarkably smooth, with price climbing steadily and decisively to set fresh all-time highs this week. The move showed little hesitation or meaningful pullback along the way, underscoring strong momentum and persistent demand despite broader risk-off sentiment in traditional markets. With new highs now established, the next phase remains uncertain — whether the breakout extends into a sustained leg higher or pauses for consolidation will depend on how flows and macro conditions evolve in the coming sessions.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Price continues to trade within a well-defined range, with $4,800 still acting as the key upper boundary and a near-term upside target. As long as ETH holds its current support levels, the broader trend remains constructive, and any sustained move above $4,800 could open the door for a more meaningful breakout in the weeks ahead.

ETH/BTC

While ETH has been lagging slightly behind BTC’s strong momentum, its overall structure remains largely unchanged. The ETH/BTC pair has shown little meaningful change, reflecting a broadly synchronized move higher across the market rather than a major shift in relative strength.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is hovering right at the edge of a breakout and looks poised to print new highs. Following last week’s strong impulsive candle, momentum appears to be building, and we expect another bullish extension that could carry the index beyond previous highs in the near term.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC pair remains largely unchanged for now, with price still capped beneath the 10-day moving average. Until that resistance is decisively cleared, there are no significant shifts in relative strength worth noting.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The Market Leverage Ratio indicates that capital is increasingly unwilling to remain on the sidelines. Positioning data shows leverage beginning to rise as participants anticipate further upside, reflecting growing conviction that the broader market is on the verge of new highs. This shift in positioning aligns with the broader trend across major indices, which are steadily approaching breakout levels, and suggests that liquidity is continuing to flow back into the market as momentum builds.

SUMMARY

• BTC climbed to a new all-time high above $125.6K, supported by approximately $3.24B in spot ETF inflows, the strongest weekly figure since June, highlighting accelerating institutional demand and strengthening its role as a macro hedge.
  
• Macro data showed mixed signals, with ISM manufacturing easing to 49.1 and services holding at 50.0, while core PCE rose by +0.2% m/m (~2.7% y/y), keeping the Fed on its higher-for-longer course. Trade tensions resurfaced as Trump renewed tariff threats on EU imports.
  
• Crypto markets outperformed broader risk assets, though liquidity remained concentrated in BTC and ETH while most altcoins underperformed. Upcoming CPI and PPI data, potential policy developments around stablecoins, and continued ETF flow momentum will be key drivers as markets head into Q4.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro