Crypto Market Pulse - October 21, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

This week represented the first full trading cycle following the tariff-induced deleveraging shock, and the market proved resilient. BTC held a steady $110–118K range as leverage and speculative positioning remained light. The system has now fully reset, with funding and OI back to neutral levels and liquidity rebalanced. Structural demand for BTC persisted even as speculative appetite cooled.

ETF flows reflected short-term caution but gradual re-engagement. Spot BTC ETFs showed ~$530M outflows through mid-week, then returned to small inflows late Friday, hinting that institutions are accumulating again but without chasing momentum. Stablecoin inflows slowed compared to the prior week, suggesting dip-buying continues but at a measured pace.

Alts underperformed, with ETH consolidating near $3K while SOL / AVAX stayed materially below pre-shock levels. Liquidity concentration around BTC rose above 60 percent, reinforcing the market’s preference for depth and defensiveness. Overall, risk exposure remains conservative but fundamentally stronger after last week’s purge.

Looking forward, next week’s key catalyst will be the US September CPI release on Oct 22, followed by PPI and several Fed speeches later in the week. Consensus expects Headline CPI ~2.6–2.7 percent YoY and Core ~3.0 percent YoY. Softer data could extend the recovery and reopen the path toward $120K BTC, while any upside surprise may reignite volatility around $110K support. Crypto markets now enter the final third of October on cleaner leverage, intact ETF demand, and selective institutional rotation, setting up a potentially constructive tone into late Q4 if macro prints cooperate.

• BTC traded between $110K and $118K after the Oct 10 $19B liquidation flush, showing structural stability post-reset
• Spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$530M net outflows through Oct 17 before turning slightly positive on Friday, indicating selective re-entry from institutional buyers
• ETH and majors lagged, with ETH near $3K while SOL and AVAX remained 10–20 percent below pre-crash levels
• Alt liquidity stayed thin, as BTC pairs accounted for over 60 percent of total market turnover
• Leverage metrics fully reset, funding neutralized, and OI compressed to multi-month lows after the deleveraging
• Stablecoin inflows slowed but stayed net positive, signaling cautious accumulation
• Macro backdrop: US 10Y yield eased to 4.0 percent, CN equities stabilized, risk sentiment improved modestly after tariff shock

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has successfully retested the lows formed during the previous panic selloff and showed a clear reversal. We believe the downside phase has likely concluded, and the market is now entering a post-rebound consolidation and bottom-building phase.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has shown a similar structure to BTC, with both recovering strongly from recent panic lows. For ETH, the 4250 level remains a widely recognized bullish breakout threshold, and a decisive move above it could confirm a shift in market momentum.

ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC pair has remained largely stable, indicating no significant shift in relative strength between the two majors. Both BTC and ETH appear to be bottoming out and have started to rebound from recent lows.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

The rebound in TOTAL3 has been noticeably weaker compared to BTC and ETH. Both the magnitude of the move and the accompanying trading volume suggest limited strength in the broader altcoin market, reflecting lingering caution and a lack of strong follow-through demand.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

The TOTAL3/BTC ratio has pulled back after an initial rebound, with a clear downward trendline forming on the upper structure. This suggests that altcoins continue to underperform relative to BTC, and the market has yet to establish a decisive reversal in relative strength.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

From the Market Leverage Ratio, it’s evident that the market hasn’t completely given up. Capital is re-entering near the bottom in an attempt to catch the dip, reflecting a typical post-retest reversal pattern that confirms the completion of the prior downtrend.

SUMMARY

• The market stabilized after last week’s tariff-driven flush, with BTC holding firm around $110–118K as leverage reset and liquidity normalized.
  
• ETF and stablecoin flows showed cautious re-entry, signaling that institutions are accumulating but avoiding aggressive risk-taking.
  
• Altcoins lagged while BTC dominance rose, leaving the market cleaner and positioned for a potential Q4 recovery if macro data remain supportive.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro