Crypto Market Pulse - October 28, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week was characterized by quiet consolidation as crypto markets stabilized following the mid-October deleveraging and early October tariff shock. BTC traded steadily within a $107K-$115K range and ETH had choppy price action in a tight $3.8-4K range. The underlying market sentiment was constructive as liquidity was steady, and buyers consistently absorbed dips. Funding rates remained neutral and open interest light, reflecting a clean derivatives market with little excess leverage. Liquidity continues to concentrate in BTC and ETH, though, reflecting defensive positioning.

ETF activity showed a measured recovery. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$274M in net outflows on October 20, followed by $165M and $126M in inflows on the 21st and 22nd, respectively. The flow pattern indicates cautious optimism; institutions are re-engaging but without chasing momentum. On October 24, net inflows of roughly $90M led by Fidelity and BlackRock products reinforced that the sentiment is gradually turning constructive again. Stablecoin supply growth was mostly flat week over week, consistent with a market waiting for stronger conviction before deploying new capital.

Altcoins underperformed again, with SOL, AVAX, and ADA still 10-20% below pre-tariff shock levels, though, TOTAL3 (the alt market cap excluding BTC/ETH) crept back toward range highs, a sign retail participation hasn’t fully disappeared. BTC dominance rose above 60%, underscoring the ongoing preference for depth and liquidity.

The main focus this week will be the Fed’s speech on Wednesday, 29th October, whereas the market has been pricing in a dovish tone from the Fed as well as a 25 bps cut. Also, the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, as well as the U.S. PCE inflation data later in the week that could set the tone for the month-end. A softer inflation reading and a confirmation of the Fed cut could initially bring about volatility as the market ‘sells the news’ but could open the door for another move toward $120K BTC, while any hawkish surprise would likely keep BTC consolidating near $110K support for now.

Crypto enters the final stretch of October in a more balanced position - liquidity is improving, leverage is relatively lower, and ETF demand is returning. We should see mild volatility after the Fed announcement, but continued bid flow if we have a softer inflation print as the market repositions alongside a dovish Fed.

• Last week, BTC traded between $106.5K and $113K, with OI slowly creeping up after 22nd Oct. Despite the early Oct flush being fresh in the mind, traders have begun placing positions on futures and perps.
• Spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$274M net outflows on 20 Oct, with 21 Oct showing ~165M net inflows, and 22 Oct showing ~126M net inflows, and remained relatively flat throughout the week, indicating cautious optimism from institutional buyers.
• Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, raising to $1B through a 160M share offering.
• First SOL spot ETF, issued by ChinaAMC, officially approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).
• Robinhood has officially listed BNB and HYPE.
• VanEck Lido Staked ETH ETF filed, and will become the first U.S. ETF referencing stETH upon approval.
• Meteora TGE.
• ETH/BTC traded in a range, SOL showed strength, and AVAX traded in a range. Key dates on Wednesday and Thursday to see if it can sustain and break out. Alts showing sustained bid from mid-week 22 Oct.
• Leverage metrics are healthy, funding neutralized, and OI at weekly range lows.
• Total stablecoins market cap has been relatively unchanged for the last 7 days, while 30 days still show a +4.5% increase, showing either liquidity on the sidelines, but also means money isn’t leaving crypto altogether, though price action is relatively in the range.
• Macro backdrop: US 10Y yield increased to 4.029 percent.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC’s rebound remains intact, with upside momentum likely to face key resistance near the 120K level. A sustained breakout above this zone could signal further bullish extension, while failure to reclaim it may trigger short-term profit-taking.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is encountering resistance at a key support-turned-resistance zone. However, the underlying rally-base structure remains constructive, suggesting potential for another upside attempt once this level is breached.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is also forming a potential rally-base-rally structure, indicating constructive upside potential. From a structural standpoint, ETH appears to exhibit stronger momentum relative to BTC, suggesting a higher likelihood of outperforming in the next leg of the move.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3’s rebound is also ongoing, with price action approaching a key trendline retest on the upside. A clean break and hold above this level would confirm continued market-wide risk appetite, while rejection here could trigger short-term consolidation across altcoins.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC remains capped under its prevailing downtrend, reflecting the continued relative weakness of altcoins versus BTC. Until this descending structure is decisively broken, rotational flows are likely to stay concentrated in majors.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The market leverage ratio has also rebounded from its prior demand zone back into the consolidation range, suggesting that confidence is gradually returning after the sharp deleveraging phase. This recovery in positioning reflects improving risk sentiment and a renewed willingness among traders to re-engage with leverage.

SUMMARY

• The market stabilized after last week’s tariff-driven flush, with BTC holding firm around $110–118K as leverage reset and liquidity normalized.
  
• ETF and stablecoin flows showed cautious re-entry, signaling that institutions are accumulating but avoiding aggressive risk-taking.
  
• Altcoins lagged while BTC dominance rose, leaving the market cleaner and positioned for a potential Q4 recovery if macro data remain supportive.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited by: Shirley Castro