Crypto Market Pulse - September 18, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

August macro data delivered a mixed picture. CPI surprised on the upside, with headline and core inflation both stronger than expected, while PPI declined month-on-month, suggesting easing pressure in the production pipeline. Rising jobless claims added to evidence of labor-market softening, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week.

For crypto, BTC consolidated within a narrow 111k–114k range, briefly testing support but unable to break resistance ahead of the inflation prints. ETH mirrored BTC’s consolidation, with reduced momentum after its strong multi-month rally, though institutional flows into ETH products remained resilient.

Looking forward, the Fed’s decision last September 17 will set the tone: a dovish cut could provide BTC and ETH with a catalyst to push higher, while a hawkish hold or guidance could bring renewed pressure on key support zones.

• U.S. CPI for August rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY; core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY.
• U.S. PPI for August fell 0.1% MoM, annual rate 2.6%, signaling cooling wholesale pressures.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept 6 rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years.
• Fed funds futures now imply a near-certain 25 bp rate cut at the Sept 16–17 FOMC meeting.
• BTC traded between 111k–114k, support levels at 108k–111k tested; ETH moved in tandem, consolidating after its summer rally.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has successfully reclaimed the 112k level, with the downtrend now reversed. The next resistance is around 120k, which remains a very strong level.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH reached the upper boundary of the range we had outlined and then pulled back, which aligns with our expectations. With the moving averages trending upward, there’s a high probability that it will set new highs again.

ETH/BTC

From the ETH/BTC perspective, both assets show an upward bias. Rather than one clearly outperforming the other, they appear to be moving in the same direction simultaneously.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Total3 also rallied to the upper boundary of the long-term supply zone last week before pulling back. The move to near new highs after breaking out of the triangle was in line with our expectations. Now, it’s all about when a decisive breakout above this key resistance level can take place.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3 remains strong relative to BTC, and we believe alts could continue to outperform both BTC and ETH in the short term.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

With BTC, ETH, and Total3 all pushing higher, overall market participation has increased. This could lead to an expansion once new highs are reached. The market leverage ratio can also be monitored to help determine whether a breakout to new highs is genuine or just a false move.

SUMMARY

• August data was mixed — CPI came in hot, PPI softened, and jobless claims rose, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
• BTC and ETH both consolidated near new highs, with BTC holding in the 111k–114k range and ETH showing slower momentum after its multi-month rally, though institutional inflows stayed strong. Alts (Total3) also pulled back after testing a major supply zone but remain relatively strong versus BTC, suggesting potential short-term outperformance. Overall, the market is holding near peak levels, awaiting the Fed’s decision as the next key catalyst.
• The Fed’s decision will be pivotal — a dovish cut could fuel upside, while a hawkish stance risks pressure on supports.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro