Crypto Market Pulse - September 23, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

The September FOMC delivered the widely anticipated 25 bp cut, marking the Fed’s first rate reduction since 2025. While Powell acknowledged persistent inflation risks, the decision reflected the accumulation of signs of labor-market softening and easing wholesale price pressures. The dot plot suggested scope for further cuts ahead, but the Fed emphasized flexibility, keeping future moves data-dependent. Rates and yields declined modestly following the meeting, supporting risk assets.

In crypto, BTC oscillated within the 112k–115k range, consolidating after recent highs, while ETH traded sideways near 4.3-4.5K. Institutional buying drove significant net inflows into BTC and ETH, while capital showed a clear preference for highly liquid altcoins with listed products, with SOL emerging as the standout beneficiary of the week as record single-day ETF/ETP inflows fueled its relative strength. Overall, the recommended strategy is to maintain a barbell approach centered on BTC and ETH, while taking small positions or defined-risk option structures in strong-performing but less liquid altcoins, and to closely track subsequent fund flows and on-chain deposit/withdrawal activity to adjust positioning dynamically.

Looking forward, with the Fed turning dovish, the next catalysts for crypto will be the September CPI/PPI prints and labor data in early October, which could determine whether risk appetite strengthens into Q4 or faces renewed headwinds.

• Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the Sept 16–17 FOMC, lowering the target range to 4.75–5.00%.
• The dot plot left room for another potential cut in December, though policymakers emphasized data dependence.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept 13 came in at 231k, easing from prior highs but still signaling a cooling labor market.
• U.S. Treasury yields declined across the curve after the FOMC, while the USD softened modestly.
• BTC traded in a narrow 112k–115k range; ETH consolidated in the 4.3k–4.5k zone, with muted spot volumes but steady ETF inflows.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC’s short-term rebound trend has broken down. From a weekly perspective, it’s unlikely to drop sharply right away — even if this turns out to be a top, it would take more time to form. Downside remains limited, with the prior low at 107k as a key level to watch.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH failed to break above 4.8k, confirming a reversal to the downside. Despite a sharp drop on Monday, the price has since stabilized, continuing to consolidate within the 4.8k–4k range. This sideways structure suggests the market is still in a wait-and-see mode, with 4k as critical support and 4.8k as key resistance for the next directional move.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC faced rejection at the 10-day moving average and continued to trend lower. This suggests a likely phase of relative underperformance from ETH, while BTC is expected to remain comparatively more stable in the near term.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

After setting a new high, Total3 saw a sharp pullback, making the breakout appear more like a false move. From a broader perspective, if further downside follows, this area could mark a potential medium-term top. Unless the price reverses upward or establishes a solid base, the downward trend may continue.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

After a strong rally, the ratio faced resistance near 0.49 and slipped below short-term moving average support, signaling fading momentum. If the 0.47–0.46 zone holds, alts may maintain relative strength; failure to do so would point to a false breakout and a potential shift into a correction phase.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The chart shows a failed retest after breaking below resistance, with continued downside momentum. Coupled with broad market weakness and visible capital outflows, the lack of nearby support suggests further downside risk until the lower demand zone is reached.

SUMMARY

• The Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the September FOMC, its first reduction since 2025, citing labor-market softening and easing producer prices, while keeping future moves data-dependent.

• BTC consolidated around 112k–115k and ETH around 4.3–4.5k, with strong institutional inflows. Capital favored liquid alts, with SOL outperforming on record ETF/ETP inflows.

• Maintain a barbell approach (BTC + ETH core, selective exposure to strong alts via spot or defined-risk options). Key catalysts ahead are September CPI/PPI and early October labor data, which will guide Q4 risk appetite.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro