Crypto Market Pulse - September 30, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

The crypto market faced sharp turbulence this week. On September 22, cascading liquidations wiped out over $1 billion in leveraged positions, marking one of the largest events of 2025. Bitcoin briefly dropped toward $112k, while Ethereum slid more than 6%, pushing the total market capitalization down to around $3.9T.

Despite the debut of the first U.S.-listed XRP ETF, which saw ~$37.7M in day-one volume, XRP retreated as broad market pressure outweighed the positive flows. High-beta altcoins bore the heaviest losses, while capital rotated back into BTC and ETH as safer liquidity anchors.

On the regulatory side, the U.K. and U.S. announced the launch of a Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future, aiming to strengthen coordination on digital asset oversight. Meanwhile, the SEC approved a new framework that streamlines exchange listings of crypto ETPs, signaling a more supportive stance for institutional products.

Looking forward, maintain a barbell approach with BTC and ETH as core holdings, complemented by small, defined-risk allocations in selective altcoins. Track fund flows, leverage ratios, and exchange activity closely. Looking ahead, U.S. September CPI/PPI and labor data in early October will set the tone—further disinflation could support a Q4 risk-on rally, while upside inflation surprises may extend volatility.

• U.S. August consumer spending rose 0.6% month-on-month, underscoring continued economic resilience.
• U.S. business activity in September moderated further in both manufacturing and services, as firms reported difficulties passing higher costs onto consumers.
• Policy divisions emerged within the Federal Reserve: newly appointed Governor Miran pushed for faster rate cuts, while more hawkish members urged caution and emphasized the need for more inflation data.
• In remarks, Chair Powell reiterated that there is “no risk-free path,” highlighting the dual risks on inflation and employment and stressing that policy is not on a pre-set course.
• U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% annualized, driven primarily by strong consumer and capital spending.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After breaking below the trendline, BTC extended into a deep correction before finding support at the prior low demand zone, which triggered a strong rebound. If the recovery continues and retraces the earlier decline, it could mark the start of a new upward trend.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH also failed to continue its decline after breaking below the range we were watching and has returned inside the range. Although the rebound is relatively weak and lackluster, we still need to pay attention to whether this could be a false breakdown to the downside.

ETH/BTC

Price remains capped by moving averages with limited upside momentum. The recent sharp red candle broke short-term support, and the latest candle shows a lower shadow but weak follow-through from buyers. Overall, ETH/BTC is trading in a range: moving averages and recent highs act as resistance, while the highlighted zone below serves as key support. Unless moving averages are reclaimed, consolidation within this range is the most likely scenario.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

After breaking below the top of the previously marked supply zone, TOTAL3 has retested the lower boundary of that zone on declining volume. If downside reversal follows, it may trigger a new bearish leg. However, if price reclaims the supply zone with strength, another attempt toward new highs could unfold.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

The uptrend above the MA10 we had been tracking has now broken down, with prices oscillating around the MA10 before coming under renewed pressure. At the same time, Total3 has broken below its previous top and is now retesting it, while BTC and ETH have stabilized after their pullbacks. Taken together, these signals suggest that altcoins may face short-term pressure and enter a relatively weaker phase.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The strong bearish candle signaled momentum loss and a decisive push lower, while the following small-bodied bullish candle with a lower wick shows some dip buying but limited strength. Unless follow-through buying emerges soon, the bounce may be interpreted more as a pause within a corrective move rather than a reversal.

SUMMARY

• Over $1B in leveraged liquidations drove sharp declines, with BTC briefly hitting $112k and ETH sliding 6%+.
• Altcoins sold off despite the launch of the first U.S.-listed XRP ETF, as capital rotated back into BTC and ETH.
• Regulatory tailwinds emerged with a U.S.-U.K. task force and new SEC ETP rules, while upcoming U.S. inflation and jobs data will shape Q4 sentiment.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro