Weekly Crypto Market Update - February 5, 2024

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 353K in Jan, much better than the estimated 185K; the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimated 3.8%.
• Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% range, Powell said cut in March is not “base case”.
• Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade goes live on Sepolia testnet.
• FTX expects to pay crypto customers in full, and won’t restart due to a lack of buyers.
• Binance Web3 wallet launched Bitcoin inscriptions marketplace.
• Meta shares surged 20% due to soaring profit, better than the expected guidance and its first dividend.
• Genesis reached $21M settlement with SEC over the Gemini Earn program.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible movement. DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. It did see some upward movement within the range. This can put some pressure on weaker assets.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX, as mentioned last week, is also getting stronger together with the dollar. For assets that are trading strong, it’s not a real problem but crypto has become fairly flat after the ETF launches. If DXY and VIX pick up further, it’s a reasonable assumption for BTC and thus, the crypto market sees lower prices in the near term, too.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still at the top of the macro range and keeps struggling at the 43-44k zone. The market is seeing a lot of alt derisking in anticipation of fresh BTC volatility coming in. For higher prices, the ideal scenario would be BTC flipping over 45k which would confirm further bullish upside. A dip into the mid-30s would also be a good opportunity.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still trading in total limbo without any clear sign of relative strength. The altcoin market is at the moment tied to the strength of ETH/BTC ratio everytime this picked up a little altcoins showed more strength. For now, ETH/USD is still bullish as long as the market consolidates above the 2k region.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has still failed to find any sustained rally on larger time frames. At the moment, ETH/BTC is at a quite critical point; anymore downside and it basically retraces the entire ETF rotation trade, which likely leads to significantly lower prices for the ratio.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 just like ETH/USD is consolidating above resistance, which is usually good for a continuation move later on. This likely correlates with ETH if ETH can find relative strength over BTC.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is also still failing to break over the resistance of the range. When it finally does break we’ll likely see a more market-wide altcoin rally in the top 100 coins.

SUMMARY

• Market is in limbo with BTC struggling at the last real point of resistance before all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH can’t find its footing against BTC leading to altcoins seeing a ton of derisking.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Marianne Dasal