Weekly Crypto Market Update - March 18, 2024

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in February v.s. 0.4% expected and 3.2% YoY v.s. 3.1% expected, core CPI rose 0.4% MoM v.s. 0.3% expected, and 3.8% YoY v.s. 3.7% expected.
• Ethereum's Dencun upgrade went live on Wednesday.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas significantly the probability of an Ethereum spot ETF approval in May from 60-70% to 30%.
• MicroStrategy purchased another ~12K BTC and currently holding ~205K BTC averaged at $33,706. 
• Binance announced its 49th project on launchpool: etherfi (ETHFI).
• London Stock Exchange will accept listing applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto ETNs in Q2 2024.
• Binance listed Solana-based meme coin BOME

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible change. DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned for now it likely keeps building more price structure within the range. The longer it stays within the range, the more upsides all risk assets have.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is again seeing some strength. Last week, BTC felt the effects as it correlated very close to the SP500 weakness. This is likely due to ETF flows being dominated so far by traditional finance players.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC breached ATHs. With how fast the move into ATHs was, it’s quite likely that BTC will form some kind of range around the old ATH. This would give the broader market a chance to catch up (other than the obvious outliers..)

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is also rallying. With the likely consolidation of BTC on ATH, ETH/BTC will likely fully rotate out from its current consolidation, which in tandem, should take ETH/USD towards ATHs.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC currently has a nice 5-month structure within the multi-year range. It seems quite likely that it will vacate this smaller range soon. With BTC stalling on ATHs, it’s more of a “when” rather than an "if" for ETH/BTC.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 saw a large breakout, mainly led by memes/AI/ L1’s. So far, the other part of the market is still fairly muted. Also, liquidity is still centered around a small basket of coins and not widely marketed yet.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still in the range. But it seems that with ETH/BTC starting to hold more and more, this will also rotate upwards within a reasonable timeframe.

SUMMARY

• BTC likely to stall for a longer period on previous ATH. If there are no large drops during this consolidation, most altcoins should start playing catch-up.
• Meme coin frenzy on Solana has been absorbing a lot of liquidity from the market.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Marianne Dasal