Weekly Crypto Market Update - September 25, 2023

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

• U.S. Federal Reserve kept the rate unchanged in the 5.25-5.50% target range, but the dot plot implied only two cuts in 2024, fewer than its forecast in June.
• Mt. Gox extended the repayment deadline to October 31, 2024.
• Hong Kong continued to investigate JPEX for alleged fraud and has received over 2,000 complaints from investors.
• Tether bought $420M worth of NVIDIA GPUs and gained a 20% stake in Northern Data, a German-listed Bitcoin miner.
• Arbitrum will restart Odyssey on September 26th.
• Optimism launched the third round of the OP token airdrop program.
  

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is at the top of the range that we’ve been tracking for months now (100-106). Meanwhile, we’re starting to see more ranging price action in equities, while inflation seems to be sticky, Oil is seeing a major rally. Crypto so far has been holding relatively well, given the dollar strength.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX saw some strength into late last week, which gave room for some downside on equities, and BTC also retraced its lower time frame rally a bit.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

For now, the BTC range is still 25-28.6k. If BTC can get back above 28.6k this should give the entire crypto market a major tailwind. If BTC breaks under 24.8k it likely opens the door for retests of 20-22k.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is right on its long-term uptrend, established in June 2022. If there’s ever a moment for crypto to pick up, it should be soon. With quarterly futures expiry being this week the market could see some more chop/ contract rolling action to further out expiries.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC and ETH/USDT align they’re both at critical points from a long-term perspective, with imminent bigger move in the coming week(s).

TOTAL3 – USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is still grinding on the low end of the range. With the positioning on ETH timing-wise, we'll likely see some serious trending action in alts depending on which way it goes in the coming weeks. It’s a given at this point, that we’ll see some big volatility expansion in the coming weeks.

TOTAL3/BTC – BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still rebuilding structure. However, with the possible BTC.D wave and this being in an overall downtrend short term, we could see ALT/BTC ratios correct further if BTC really starts to pick up the pace. Alts would likely get a lot stronger if BTC goes convincingly through the 30k region.

SUMMARY

• Mt. Gox extended the repayment deadline to October 31, 2024.
• Quarterly futures & options expiry this week. The rolling of contracts creates “choppy” price action, later into the week/next week we’d expect more volatility and directions to “stick” instead of mean reverting.
  
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Rizza Carla Ramos