Weekly Crypto Market Update - September 4, 2023

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000. The counts for June and July were revised considerably lower.
• The Federal Court ruled that Grayscale's petition for review be granted, and the SEC's order be vacated.
• Offchain Labs released the code and public Testnet for Arbitrum Stylus.
• Uniswap v4 will come after the Dencun upgrade.
• Bloomberg ETF analysts predicted that the probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF launching increases to 75% this year and 95% by the end of 2024.
• Binance encouraged users to convert BUSD to other stablecoins prior to February 2024.
• MakerDAO Co-Founder Rune discussed exploring a fork of the Solana codebase for NewChain, and the Vitalik address sold 500 MKR for 350 ETH later.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

With September starting it’s a good moment to zoom out, we can now see where things are at on a higher time frame (monthly). DXY is still in a larger range than we’ve been tracking. From a monthly point of view, it’s clear that 100-106 is still the range to track. Anything above or below that will lead to a larger trend/expansion.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

As expected VIX died out after NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole's speech. In the meantime, big tech has been picking back up. For now, crypto still can’t catch up to equities, while oil has quietly been picking up again. This likely will cause a sticky inflation at current CPI levels.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC as mentioned, last week is still seeing a single trend day followed by multi-week small ranges. From a monthly point of view, the current BTC range is 25k-30k. At the moment, there are a lot of possible speculative drivers that ignite BTC. On the other hand, there’s also still uncertainty, as BTC is inching ever closer to the next halving, and next year is also election year with pro-crypto candidates.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

As ETH neared its first try at breaking the macro downtrend since the 2021 peak, it saw harsh rejection together with the BTC dump. For now, the 2021 lows around 1800-2000 still act as a concrete wall. With ETH/BTC nearing its apex point, and ETH/USD being near the long-term uptrend which started after the 3AC liquidation back in June 2022. From a timing point of view, the coming months should restart some real trending behavior in ETH (Not the occasional 1 big candle and weeks of range).

ETH/BTC

As mentioned in ETH/USD, ETH/BTC is compressing right on top of support. If the bull thesis for ETH holds the ETH/BTC should start seeing some explosive growth once this starts going again.

TOTAL3 – USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is still in range, as the above red is the bull market. If it breaks down, the entire alt market will likely see another 30-50% reduction.

TOTAL3/BTC – BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still rebuilding its structure. So far, majors have been very weak relative to BTC, especially after last week's dump. Every pop sees full retraces on the lower time frames, but it’s important to note that most alts are in a very large higher time frame accumulation range. These ranges usually chop traders up, before they leave on a large scale higher time frame moves, so it’s important to keep that perspective.

SUMMARY

• Grayscale petition for review granted.
• SEC delays all ETF applications.
• FTX altcoin liquidation is to be executed by Galaxy Digital.
• NFTs see a significant rebound in ETH valuations.
  
  
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Rizza Carla Ramos