Crypto Market Pulse - December 02, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Crypto markets rose last week as new hopes for a possible Fed rate cut in December boosted general risk sentiment, with BTC hitting $93k and ETH hitting $ 3.1k during the week. As a result, ETF flows were mixed but finished the week on a positive note. After a sharp outflow of -$151M on Nov 24, inflows bounced back with +$129M on Nov 25, followed by +$21M on Nov 26 and +$71M on Nov 28. Despite these fluctuations, cumulative net inflows increased to $57.71B, with total net assets held between $114B and $119B. Trading volumes were also solid, ranging from $3.4B to $5.4B during the week.

On the inflation side, PPI came in higher than expected at +0.3%. While this may have dampened rate-cut expectations, weaker consumer data helped balance the situation. Retail sales fell short of expectations at +0.2%, signaling lower demand. On the other hand, initial jobless claims were better than anticipated at 216k, indicating that the labor market isn't as weak as data last week may have indicated.

In crypto news, Bybit launched the first centralized exchange-integrated liquidity farm through Bybit Alpha. Ethereum also achieved a significant technical change as its mainnet raised the block gas limit from 45M to 60M. This effectively increases block capacity, allowing more transactions per block and lessening congestion risks. This is a positive step for network usability and layer 2 settlement throughput.

Looking ahead to this week, today’s market reacted sharply to comments from the BOJ Governor Ueda, who said the central bank will weigh the “pros and cons” of a December rate hike, a surprise hawkish tilt that has rattled risk assets, including crypto. Later in the week, we also have Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and Initial Jobless Claims as macro data points that could also drive short-term volatility in crypto.

• Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas: Grayscale launched the first U.S. spot Dogecoin ETF.
• Bloomberg: Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the firm is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi to provide liquidity in prediction markets. Jump Trading also started making markets on Kalshi.
• The official Binance Wallet page shows that a new “Stocks” section has appeared under the “Markets” tab, indicating that Binance Wallet now supports on‑chain stock trading.
• HIP-3 custom markets are now live.
• Upbit suffers an abnormal outflow on the SOL network with related loss of ~$30.43 million. Solana‑related tokens on Upbit surged with a premium.
• U.S. House Judiciary Committee Democrats released a report accusing the Trump administration of using the White House to benefit the Trump family’s crypto ventures.
• Blockworks Research: SOL Memes trading recently accounted for less than 5% of daily volume, the lowest share since December 2023.
• Bloomberg: Kalshi has been sued in a proposed class action in New York alleging that it operated unlicensed sports betting and misled users about its market-making practices.
• The Hyperliquid team confirmed 1.75 million HYPE tokens unlocked for developers and core contributors.
• ETHBTC is in a local range, SOL and AVAX are on a daily downtrend.
• Most major funding neutral and BTC OI are starting to make new lows on a daily.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~1.10% increase last 7 days, while 30 days shows a ~-0.40% decrease.
• US 10Y yield ~4.044% which is a decrease from the previous week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has begun testing its previous lows, and the key area to watch now is the demand zone around 85k. If the price can stabilize in this region, it would signal that a short-term bottom is forming.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is showing a similar structure to BTC. The key level to monitor is around 2770. Price stability in this area would increase the likelihood of a short term bottom forming.

ETH/BTC

ETH momentum has been steadily weakening, and the pair is showing signs of breaking lower within this range. If this support gives way, we will likely see a continuation of relative underperformance from ETH, with rotation flows favoring BTC and wider market risk assets remaining cautious. A breakdown here would also pressure the ETH spot structure and delay any meaningful recovery attempts.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is showing the same pattern. We would prefer not to see a new lower low forming here, but the downtrend remains intact. As long as the structure continues to print lower highs, market-wide altcoin sentiment will stay defensive, and any bounce is likely to be corrective rather than a trend reversal.

TOTAL3/BTC MARKET STRENGTH

With the broader market pulling back, TOTAL3 continues to lag BTC on a relative basis. The pair was rejected at the previous structural resistance and is now rolling over again. This failure to break higher confirms that altcoin momentum remains weak and that capital is still rotating toward BTC. If this downturn continues, we may see the ratio revisit the mid-range levels or even make another leg lower, which further suppresses any sustained altcoin recovery attempts.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The market leverage ratio has now broken below its long-term support zone, marking a fresh multi-month low. This reflects a broad deleveraging across the market as participants unwind risk and reduce exposure. When leverage compresses this sharply, price action often becomes more mechanically driven by spot flows rather than derivatives positioning. Unless the ratio can reclaim this zone quickly, the market may remain in a defensive state, characterized by weaker liquidity and a higher probability of extended downside follow-through.

SUMMARY

• Both BTC and ETH are retesting major demand zones, that is, 85K for BTC, 2770 for ETH, and holding these levels is crucial for forming a potential short-term bottom.
  
• ETH/BTC and TOTAL3/BTC continue to underperform, with failed breakouts and rotation flows favoring BTC, keeping overall altcoin sentiment defensive.
  
• The leverage ratio has broken long-term support, signaling broad deleveraging, weaker liquidity, spot-driven price action, and elevated downside risk.

Check out our latest blog: AI-Driven Market Making: Smarter Liquidity in a Saturated Market

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro