Crypto Market Pulse - December 09, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week started with BTC having a sharp drop to $83.8k after the Bank of Japan hinted that a rate hike is possible at their upcoming meeting. This caused a brief risk-off reaction across markets, including crypto. The US Manufacturing PMI fell below 50, showing contraction, while the Services PMI stayed above 50, indicating ongoing strength as the macro data mixed in the first half of the week. On Friday, Core PCE came in at 2.8% YoY, slightly below the anticipated 2.9% and this contributed to a mild pullback in crypto as markets reassessed the Fed's policy direction.

In crypto, ETF flows varied during the week. We recorded modest net inflows of 8.48M on December 1 and 58.5M on December 2. Then, there was a move to outflows, with -14.9M on December 3 and a much larger -194.6M on December 4. The week ended with a recovery to +54.79M in net inflows on December 5. Overall, we still experienced net outflows for the week, particularly on Thursday, suggesting that ETF buyers are still reducing their risk. Also, as noted in early November, there remains a significant cluster of BTC put open interest at the 80-85k strikes, while calls are concentrated around 100k. This gives us a reasonable short-term range to watch. In the altcoin market, TOTAL3 continues to remain within its lower range between $824.6B and $902.32B. Most altcoins are still weak, showing ongoing declines with no sustained bids appearing so far.

Looking ahead to this week, the most important event will be on Wednesday with the FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Currently, markets seem to be pricing in another Fed cut on Wednesday as the 30-day Fed-funds futures suggest about an 87% chance of a 25 basis point cut. As a result, attention may shift to the Fed’s predictions for 2026, as the markets might have already factored in the near-term decision. These updated forecasts will help show if the conditions are right for a possible “Santa Claus rally” at the end of the year. However, if Powell expresses uncertainty about the future of rate cuts during his comments, even if the Fed does cut rates this week, it could hurt sentiment and reduce the chances of a December rally.

• Yearn Finance’s yETH was attacked, with an exploiter draining the pool and profiting around 1,000 ETH.
• HashKey set to go public in Hong Kong.
• CZ-owned Trust Wallet launched “Predictions,” a prediction market hub.
• Binance announced that co-founder He Yi has been appointed Co-CEO.
• Kalshi announced that it has become CNN's official partner and also announced a new multi-year data partnership with CNBC.
• Base launched a Base-Solana bridge, which allows Solana tokens to be bridged over to Base.
• ETHBTC, SOL, and AVAX in a local range.
• Most major funding is neutral, and BTC OI is still on a daily downtrend.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~1.24% increase last 7 days, while 30 days shows a ~1.41% increase.
• US 10Y yield ~4.143% which is an increase from the previous week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has not formed another lower low in the short term and is currently in a short-term rebound trend.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has decisively broken above its descending trendline and is now in the process of a technical retest. A confirmed break above the 3.2k level would likely open the door for a meaningful upside extension.

ETH/BTC

With ETH having already broken above its descending trendline, its overall structure now looks stronger than BTC's. In the near term, we expect ETH to outperform BTC.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 remains locked in a sideways consolidation, with price continuing to build a base within the lower support range rather than showing a decisive trend break.

TOTAL3/BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC remains largely unchanged, mirroring the ongoing consolidation in TOTAL3 with little directional movement. Overall volatility stays muted, and trading volume remains notably depressed.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The Market Leverage Ratio has moved back into its key demand zone. While the current price action has the look of a potential false breakdown, it will require a very strong rebound to confirm that view. Failing that, this would signal an unsuccessful attempt to push higher. This remains a critical level to monitor closely.

SUMMARY

• BTC is showing a short-term rebound structure. ETH has broken down its descending trendline and is now in the process of a technical retest. A confirmed move above $3.2k could lead to more gains and position ETH to do better than BTC.
  
• TOTAL3 is still consolidating within its lower support range. The TOTAL3/BTC pair is directionless with low volatility and low trading volume, indicating weak momentum across the altcoin market.
  
• The market leverage ratio has returned to a key demand zone. While the recent breakdown may not be significant, only a strong rebound would confirm this. This makes it an important level to watch for the overall market direction.

Check out our latest blog: AI-Driven Market Making: Smarter Liquidity in a Saturated Market

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro