Crypto Market Pulse - December 23, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week, BTC stayed within a range of $86k to $89k, while ETH traded sideways between $2.8k and $3.0k as markets processed a series of increasingly dovish macro data points. These reports strengthened expectations that the Fed will cut rates in 2026. Meanwhile, gold and silver reached record highs, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets as the market continues to price in an easing cycle from the Fed for next year.

The macro data last week continued to support the dovish narrative. The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, surpassing both the previous reading and consensus. The CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%, below estimates, which further supports disinflationary trends and strengthens the case for future rate cuts and further gives the Fed more room to ease policy. In global markets, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, signaling a shift away from its accommodative policy and also global monetary policy that is instead reinforcing expansionary monetary policies. While this increase helped the yen and tightened global financial conditions a bit, its impact on crypto and other risk assets was limited.

In crypto, flows were net negative over the week. Daily outflows were consistent, with one mid-week inflow. After modest inflows on Dec 17 (around $457M), the market experienced renewed selling pressure. Outflows increased toward the week's end, ranging from about $150 to $360M per day. Despite this, total assets under management stayed mostly stable, which could suggest that while some capital was leaving, there was no major sell-off. These ongoing but organized outflows help explain the choppy behavior of BTC and ETH. Selling pressure from fund flows limited attempts to rise in price. Meanwhile, the lack of panic-driven redemptions prevented significant drops. On the DEX side, Coinbase is expanding its in-app DEX trading capabilities to include Solana-based tokens, integrating Jupiter directly into the Coinbase interface. The integration will enable users to trade newly launched Solana tokens seamlessly without leaving the Coinbase app, and this further lowers the barriers to on-chain trading.

Looking ahead to the coming week, the key data points will be the core PCE inflation reading and the US GDP, and then the release of the measure of consumer confidence would help to better understand the health of the US consumer as the market looks to watch for any signals of a ‘Santa Claus’ rally to end the year. These data points come ahead of a muted second half of the week, with liquidity expected to thin as most global markets slow or close for the Christmas holidays, likely reinforcing range-bound price action in the near term.

• SEAL: North Korean hackers are using fake Zoom meetings to carry out cryptocurrency scams, with attacks now occurring daily.
• Jesse Pollak (Base co-founder) promoted a token by Soulja Boy, which sparked criticism as on-chain researchers such as ZachXBT claimed Soulja did many related “scams” before.
• Strategy has acquired 10,645 BTC for ~$980.3 million at ~$92,098 per bitcoin.
• CME Group launched spot-quoted XRP and SOL futures.
• Aster launched Shield Mode, a protected trading mode enabling private position opening and management without a public order book, offering gasless trading, no close fees, and faster execution.
• BNB Chain stated that a new stablecoin will officially launch on BNB Chain.
• Coinbase to expand the range of tradable assets on its platform by adding stock trading, prediction markets, and perpetual futures.
• JPMorgan has migrated its tokenized deposit product, JPM Coin (JPMD), to Base.
• ETHBTC is still in a local range, SOL and AVAX made new lows on the 4H timeframe.
• Most major fundings are neutral, and BTC OI is still on a daily downtrend but ranging last week.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~0.15% increase last 7 days, while last 30 days shows a ~2.39% increase.
• U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield ~4.165% which is an increase from the previous week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC found short-term support at the prior low demand zone and has not printed a new lower low. While moving averages remain in a declining trend, the lack of downside continuation suggests selling pressure is easing. Price action is beginning to stabilize, which we view as a constructive near-term signal, though confirmation will require follow-through above short-term resistance and improvement in trend indicators.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH also found support around the demand zone. The key focus is whether price can reclaim and sustain levels above 3,450, which would be necessary to preserve the prior rebound structure. Failure to do so would leave the recovery vulnerable and keep ETH range-bound in the near term.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has moved back into the prior congestion range, where price previously spent an extended period consolidating. Relative performance remains neutral at this stage, with neither side showing a decisive advantage. Until a clear range resolution emerges, ETH’s relative strength versus BTC is likely to remain capped and range-bound.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 printed a short-term low ahead of last weekend, briefly breaking below the demand zone we were monitoring. The positive development is that the price quickly reclaimed above the area. However, the recovery has occurred on persistently weak volume, suggesting limited conviction. As a result, we likely need to wait for a fresh catalyst to reintroduce liquidity and sustain any broader upside follow-through.

TOTAL3/BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is exhibiting a similar structure, with relative performance continuing to lag BTC. The pair has failed to sustain upside momentum following recent rebounds, reinforcing the view that broader altcoin exposure remains relatively weak versus BTC. Until relative strength improves, capital rotation into the alt complex is likely to remain selective rather than broad-based.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

Market leverage ratios remain depressed and continue to consolidate near cycle lows. This indicates that risk positioning across the crypto complex remains light, with limited use of leverage and subdued speculative activity. While this reduces the risk of forced deleveraging in the near term, it also implies a lack of fuel for sustained upside moves.

SUMMARY

• Overall, BTC and ETH have found short-term support at key demand zones and are showing early signs of stabilization. Additionally, selling pressure is easing, but trend indicators are still weak, leaving prices range-bound unless resistance levels are reclaimed with stronger follow-through.
  
• Relative performance across the broader crypto market remains subdued, as ETH/BTC has returned to a prior consolidation range and TOTAL3 continues to lag BTC, indicating that rotation into altcoins is selective and conviction outside BTC remains limited.
  
• Market positioning remains cautious, with leverage ratios near cycle lows and recoveries occurring on weak volume, suggesting reduced downside risk but also a lack of speculative fuel, meaning a meaningful upside move likely requires a fresh macro or liquidity catalyst.

Check out our latest blog: BTC Decline: A Market-Maker's View on Liquidity Stress

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro