Crypto Market Pulse - December 30, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Last week, key US macro data surprised to the upside with GDP QoQ coming in at 4.3%, which is higher than both expectations and the previous reading. Initial jobless claims were also lower than expected and down from the previous week, and this strengthened the view of a resilient labor market but also challenged the near-term dovish outlook by policymakers. The stronger macro backdrop seems to have created a tailwind for traditional asset classes, though, as gold and silver reached record highs, and equities also continued to rise to record highs. However, BTC could not maintain a breakout above $90k, and ETH faced similar resistance near $3k in a market with thin year-end liquidity.

The divergence between the traditional asset classes and crypto could be explained by the flows in cryptocurrencies. Crypto ETFs experienced four straight days of net outflows, amounting to about $780 million last week. Daily withdrawals picked up speed towards the end of the week, with the biggest outflow happening on December 26 at $275.9 million. Even with these ongoing outflows, total net assets only dipped slightly from around $115.0 billion to $113.5 billion. This could suggest a rebalancing of holdings instead of forced selling. In regard to trading volume, over $11.4 billion was traded last week. Additionally, BTC perpetual open interest across major exchanges fell by ~$3bn in the first half of the week, while ETH perpetual OI declined by ~$2bn, further signalling that leverage and risk are being taken off the table rather than redeployed into year-end, reinforcing the current consolidation and risk-reduction narrative in crypto markets.

Looking ahead to this week, focus will shift to the manufacturing PMI and minutes from the FOMC meeting, which could provide more information about the direction of policy and the pace of the economy. Tax loss harvesting into year-end by investors could lead to mild volatility this week; however, due to the New Year's holiday and festivities in the second half of the week, liquidity could probably stay low, which could lead to another muted week for markets, and this may be a mitigation against volatile price swings.

• Coinbase to acquire prediction-markets startup The Clearing Company.
• Kaspersky: Identified a new infostealer malware called Stealka, targeting over 100 browsers and more than 80 crypto wallets, stealing credentials, private keys, and seed phrases.
• Bloomberg: Reported that Crypto com is hiring a quant trader to run an in-house market-making team on its sports prediction market, raising conflict-of-interest concerns.
• Binance market data showed BTC/USD1 making a brief wick at around 17:15 on Dec. 24, dropping to $24,111.22 before quickly recovering.
• Trust Wallet users reported unauthorized fund outflows, with Trust Wallet confirming a security incident affecting a certain version of the Browser Extension
• Lighter has open-sourced the code used to verify every on-chain operation, including orders, cancellations, and liquidations.
• ETHBTC and SOL are in a local range, and AVAX is making a move up from its local lows to test the previous range.
• Most major funding remains neutral, and BTC OI is still ranging from last week.
• Total stablecoins market cap ~0.29% decrease last 7 days, while the last 30 days show a ~0.68% increase.
• U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield ~4.112% which is a decrease from the previous week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

Holiday conditions have coincided with a contraction in trading volume, leaving BTC consolidating near the upper boundary of its demand zone. Several attempts to push prices higher roughly 3% advances, have failed to gain follow-through. While the thin volume environment limits the reliability of these signals, the repeated lack of upside continuation suggests emerging signs of “effort without result” on the bullish side, pointing to cautious short-term upside momentum.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has seen a similar contraction in trading volume. As market participation returns, the key focus will be whether price can reclaim control within the demand zone and resume an upward trajectory, or instead fail to hold and break decisively to the downside.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC continues to trade within the same established range, showing little deviation despite the broader contraction in activity across majors.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 remains in a downward drift along the 30-day moving average. Attention should be on the point at which the moving average begins to flatten, and price action compresses around it, signaling potential basing and a stabilization in broader market structure.

TOTAL3/BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is showing early signs of a supported rebound, with selling pressure appearing to ease after finding demand at current levels. The key technical inflection point to monitor is the 30-day moving average. A sustained move back above the MA30 would strengthen the case for a short-term trend reversal.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

It is increasingly clear that the market is facing the weakest leverage conditions seen since 2024. Risk appetite remains subdued, with positioning light and speculative capital largely sidelined. Until leverage begins to rebuild and participation meaningfully improves, upside moves are likely to remain fragile and reactive rather than trend-driven.

SUMMARY

• Trading activity in major cryptocurrencies has slowed down due to the holidays. BTC and ETH are holding steady near key demand zones with repeated upside attempts failing to gain follow-through, suggesting cautious short-term momentum and limited conviction despite prices holding support.
  
• Relative performance has remained weak with ETH/BTC continuing to trade within its established set range. The overall strength of the altcoin market (TOTAL3) is still drifting lower, though signs of easing sell pressure and potential basing are emerging if prices can stabilize around key moving averages.
  
• Market positioning remains defensive, with leverage at its weakest levels since 2024, indicating subdued risk appetite and sidelined speculative capital; until participation and leverage rebuild, upside moves are likely to stay fragile, reactive, and range-bound rather than developing into sustained trends.

Check out our latest blog: BTC Decline: A Market-Maker's View on Liquidity Stress

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by the Kairon Labs Trading Team.

Edited for publication by: Shirley Castro