Crypto Market Pulse - April 7, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 51.1 expected
• China Caixin Services PMI 51.9 vs 51.6 expected
• Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates at 4.1% as expected
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI 49 vs 49.5 expected
• US ISM Services PMI 50.8 vs 53 expected
• US Non Farm Payrolls 228k vs 135k expected
• US Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected
• USA “Liberation Day” Tariff announcements: a minimum of 10% tariff on all trading partners, steeper levies on key economies, including:
  • EU: 20%
  • China: 34% (on top of the existing 20%)
  • Japan: 24%
  • Vietnam: 46%
  • South Korea: 26%
  • Taiwan: 32%
• China retaliates with 34% tariffs on USA, EU “prepared” to retaliate
• Powell says larger-than-expected tariffs likely to boost inflation, and that the Fed is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to its policy stance

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

The DXY has breached the first support level. The next key support lies at the $100 level, a critical psychological and technical threshold that has held for over two and a half years.

While this level is likely to provide near-term support, macro concerns about persistent inflation remain unresolved. Traders should closely monitor price action around this pivotal zone.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC’s price action has unfolded as cautioned last week, with BTC retesting its previous swing low. While BTC has shown relative resilience compared to equities, the risk of a catch-down move remains if this support fails. A breakdown here would shift focus to the $73k zone as the next critical area for buyer conviction.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has decisively breached the critical $1,750 support on heavy volume, plunging 12.5%, back to 2023 lows. The price remains firmly in a downtrend with no reversal signals yet disregard RSI oversold.

ETH/BTC

Clearly, as BTC declined by 6%, ETH saw a sharper drop of 15%, with no bullish signals for ETH.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

In line with our projections from last week, TOTAL3 has extended its downtrend, reaching the 723.1 B – 723.1B–650B demand zone. Historically, this region hasn’t provided reliable support, but we may start seeing early accumulation from buyers in this range.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3/BTC‘s price action suggests that bullish efforts remain unconvincing, with TOTAL3 still lagging behind BTC and displaying no meaningful strength. The lack of follow-through reinforces the current bearish bias.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

Leverage is getting flushed out of the system - traders are backing off as the market shows no signs of stabilizing, creating a negative feedback loop of lower liquidity and weaker price action.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

There was a spike in Open Interest on 2nd April - Liberation Day, as traders either opened new positions for speculative or hedging purposes for the big risk event.

However, OI fell sharply with BTC as the risk-off move ensued following the bearish event, as traders exited positions.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

BTC perps funding consolidated towards 0 as BTC climbed towards the high of April 2nd- a sign that perps positions were leaning towards shorts towards the highs.

Following the drop in BTC after the April 2nd risk event, OI started to climb up again- possibly from bears exiting their shorts and long positions starting to build again.

BTC Spot Inflow / Outflow

BTC Spot saw net inflows with the surge in price on 2nd April, before net outflows after the tariff escalation led to the retracement in prices

ETH OPEN INTEREST

Similarly, OI decreased significantly with the drop in ETH price following April 2nd’s tariff announcements, as traders exited positions.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

ETH funding built up towards the 2nd April risk event; however, in the ensuing fall in price, there was no significant fall in funding as funding stayed positive, a sign that the market remained long.

This would likely point to further downside, which indeed happened towards the weekend, when ETH broke below the range and hit 1551, with funding falling together and going negative.

ETH Spot Inflow/Outflow

In contrast to BTC, there were no significant spot inflows in the price rally in the lead-up to April 2nd.

This points to a very derivative-driven price rally in ETH.

However, the ensuing fall in price was met with significant outflows.

SUMMARY

• BTC demonstrated relative strength early in the week, dropping only about 5% to 82.5K while traditional markets collapsed. However, as Asian equities sold off sharply on Monday, BTC followed the broader risk−off move, breaking below key support and slipping toward 78K. Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom before equities, so if the macro backdrop stabilizes, particularly if the EU’s tariff response is milder than feared, BTC could lead a short-term recovery. For now, its trajectory remains tied to liquidity conditions and Fed expectations, which have turned slightly more hawkish after Powell’s inflation warnings.
• ETH underperformed Bitcoin this week, falling around 12% as altcoin sentiment weakened further. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to slide, reflecting fading optimism around spot ETF approvals and pressure from low staking yields. If the market stabilizes, ETH could rebound, but it remains highly sensitive to broader crypto liquidity and any delays in regulatory progress. Key support sits near 1,500; a breakdown there could trigger additional selling.
• Altcoins suffered the most severe losses, with many major tokens down 20–40% as liquidity evaporated and leveraged positions unwound. Solana (SOL) held up slightly better than most but still dropped nearly 20% amid ongoing concerns about network congestion. Meme coins were hit hardest, with some plunging 30–50% as retail traders retreated. DeFi and Layer 2 tokens also faced heavy selling pressure, compounded by declining TVL and ETH’s weakness. Until risk appetite returns, altcoins will likely remain under pressure, with any meaningful recovery requiring a stabilization in BTC and ETH first.
• The overall crypto market remains at the mercy of macro developments, particularly the looming EU tariff response and Fed policy signals. If trade tensions escalate further, another leg down is possible, but a shift toward negotiation or de-escalation could quickly revive bullish momentum, with Bitcoin leading the way.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal