Crypto Market Pulse - July 14, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

With U.S. macro data light and Middle East tensions fading into the rearview, markets returned their focus squarely to the tariff narrative—and risk assets barely flinched. Early in the week, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on South Korea and Japan (amongst other nations), prompting a minor wobble in equities. But true to recent form, the “TACO trade” came through yet again. The S&P 500 briefly tagged fresh ATHs at 6,290, before easing slightly to close at 6,259—still well within the uptrend.

Post-close on Saturday, the White House wasn’t done: Trump unveiled a sweeping new round of tariffs set to take effect August 1, including 30% on the EU and Mexico, and 50% on Brazil. With TradFi markets closed over the weekend, it’s unclear whether Monday will bring another shrug or something more risk-off.

Meanwhile, crypto finally stole the show.

After lagging equities for weeks, digital assets caught fire. BTC broke out to a new ATH above 119k (at 122k at time of trading), finally leaving its 105–110k range behind. ETH cleared 3k, while Total3 surged above $960B, breaking past its May highs in a decisive breakout. It was the catch-up rally we had written about—and it arrived with force.

Several factors helped drive the breakout. On the macro front, we have optimism ahead of next week’s “Crypto Week” in the US House combined with the continued fiscal impulse from the Big Beautiful Bill, and front-running of rate cuts looming in the corner. On the micro front, continued structural bids from companies forming Crypto Treasuries likely form the bullish flows. Most notably this week, Sharplink Gaming bought 10,000 ETH directly from the Ethereum Foundation, marking the first-ever OTC deal of its kind, showing continued absorption of ETH selling flows. Meanwhile, in another sign of the exuberant appetite in the crypto world, Pump.fun’s ICO raised a staggering $500M in 12 minutes, further validating the intensity of speculative flows and retail appetite.

Looking ahead, volatility may tick higher. Crypto Week kicks off July 14, with the GENIUS Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act all on the docket. Meanwhile, the market still has to digest the weekend tariff headlines, which hit a broader swath of global partners and could test risk sentiment early next week.

The setup? Crypto’s technicals have flipped bullish across the board, and the macro backdrop still tilts favorably. But with fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical forces all in play, the only certainty is that it won’t be a quiet week. Stay nimble.

• RBA held interest rates at 3.85%, against expectations of a cut to 3.60%
• China Inflation Rate YoY 0.1% vs 0% expectations, MoM -0.1% vs 0% expectations
• UK GDP YoY 0.7% as expected, MoM -0.1% vs 0.1% expectations
• Canada Unemployment Rate 6.9% vs 7.1% expectations
• FOMC Minutes showed a divide over the rate path. While most saw a reduction within the year, some saw tariff inflation as temporary and a cut in July likely, while others saw no reductions for the year.
• On Saturday, President Trump announced tariff rates for dozens of countries to take effect on 1st August- notably 30% on EU and Mexico, and 50% on Brazil
• Adding on further pressures on Powell, Trump’s Director of Management and Budget accused Powell of breaking the law by “failing to comply with government oversight regulations and lying to Congress about details of a $2.5b planned renovation of the Fed’s headquarters”
• Ethereum Foundation sells 10,000 ETH to SharpLink in first such OTC deal
• Pump.fun raises 500m within 12 minutes in the ICO

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has reached a new all-time high, supported by a steady uptick in trading volume, signaling robust market participation. The current price action shows no clear signs of consolidation or pullback, with momentum continuing to favor the bulls. The sustained one-sided upward trajectory suggests strong investor confidence and persistent demand in the current trend cycle.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has also experienced a spike in trading volume amid its recent rally, signaling a bullish breakout to the upside. We expect the price to make an attempt toward establishing a new all-time high as bullish momentum continues to build.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has returned to its previous resistance level and is currently undergoing a brief consolidation. A breakout above this level would likely be a strong bullish signal, potentially indicating the start of a significant upward move for ETH.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is also exhibiting a strong one-sided upward trend, though a potential pullback near the previous high may occur as the market tests resistance levels.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3/BTC has been accompanied by a noticeable increase in trading volume, indicating strong market participation behind the move. If momentum continues and the pair can maintain above the breakout zone, it could mark the beginning of a broader altcoin rotation relative to BTC.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The Market Leverage Ratio has also shown a textbook breakout, further reinforcing the bullish narrative. We can now say with strong confidence that we are in the midst of a full-fledged bull market.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

BTC saw a strong continuation of its bullish momentum this past week, with price climbing from ~$108K to over $121K by 14 July. Open interest mirrored this uptrend, rising steadily from ~$74B to a cycle high above $86B. This synchronized rise in both OI and price suggests significant inflows of fresh capital and directional long positioning rather than short-covering alone. The market appears increasingly confident, possibly front-running macro catalysts or continued ETF inflows, though rising OI into new highs also raises the risk of crowded longs.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Funding rates surged sharply alongside BTC’s breakout to new highs above $121K. The average funding rate rose to 0.0150, with predicted rates pushing even higher to 0.0189 — their highest levels in recent months. This sustained elevation reflects increasingly aggressive long positioning in perpetual futures, with traders willing to pay a premium to maintain exposure. While this aligns with the strong price action, the rapid increase in funding also signals heightened risk of a leverage flush should price momentum falter.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Interestingly, despite the bullish price action and elevated funding rates, the long/short ratio indicated a greater number of short accounts.

This shows a divergence between capital and accounts with lesser capital- smaller accounts are shorting or hedging for downside, but capital is still favoring upside.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

ETH also sees a strong continuation of its bullish momentum this past week, with price climbing from ~$2.5K to over $3K by 14 July. Open interest mirrored this uptrend, rising steadily from ~$33B to a cycle high above $43B. This synchronized rise in both OI and price suggests significant inflows of fresh capital and directional long positioning rather than short-covering alone. The market appears increasingly confident, possibly front-running macro catalysts or continued ETF inflows, though rising OI into new highs also raises the risk of crowded longs.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Similarly, funding rates surged sharply alongside ETH ’s breakout of recent ranges to $3K. The average funding rate rose to 0.0148, with predicted rates pushing even higher to 0.0237 — highest levels in recent months. This sustained elevation reflects increasingly aggressive long positioning in perpetual futures, with traders willing to pay a premium to maintain exposure. While this aligns with the strong price action, the rapid increase in funding also signals heightened risk of a leverage flush should price momentum falter.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

ETH’s long/short ratio oscillated frequently throughout the week. Notably, while price maintained strength alongside BTC, the positioning data showed less directional conviction compared to Bitcoin. Multiple dips suggest short interest remains persistent. However, frequent spikes indicate opportunistic long entries are still occurring. The lack of sustained dominance from longs implies ETH participants may be more cautious, possibly waiting for confirmation of strength or reacting to macro flows favoring BTC more aggressively this cycle.

SUMMARY

• Trump’s new tariffs target EU, Mexico, and Brazil ahead of the August deadline
• S&P 500 hits all-time high despite rising trade tensions
• Bitcoin breaks $122K as crypto catches up to equities in explosive rally
• Sharplink’s 10K eth OTC deal and Pump.fun’s $500M ICO signals bullish micro flows
• Crypto week looms: U.S. Lawmakers to debate GENIUS Act, Clarity Act, and anti-CBDC Bill

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Shirley Castro