Crypto Market Pulse - July 7, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Despite a shortened week in traditional markets due to the July 4th holiday, risk assets didn’t take a break. Fueled by a strong jobs print and a flurry of pro-growth headlines, both equities and crypto extended their recent momentum into highs.

Thursday’s early release of employment data (ahead of the Friday holiday) was the marquee macro catalyst: Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 147k vs 110k expected, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% vs 4.3% expected, allaying recession concerns and reinforcing the soft-landing narrative. Equities responded in kind, with the S&P 500 closing ~1.4% higher at 6,279, marking yet another record close.

The real fireworks, however, came after the bell. On Independence Day, President Trump signed the long-promised “Big Beautiful Bill”, a sweeping tax and spending package that codifies elements of the fiscal expansion thesis that’s powered risk assets for months. In parallel, Congress passed the “Invest America Act”, a move establishing $1,000 tax-deferred investment accounts for every U.S. newborn starting in 2026—a headline that adds both sentiment and structural demand tailwinds.

Crypto didn’t miss the party either. Regulatory clarity and product expansion dominated the news flow:

• Robinhood unveiled a comprehensive crypto suite—tokenized stocks, L2 chain, EU perps, and U.S. staking
• Circle officially applied for a U.S. national banking license
• The SEC approved staked ETH and SOL ETFs, along with Grayscale’s large-cap blended fund (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA)
• These moves underscore a fast-maturing institutional and regulatory landscape—and point to deepening access for both retail and institutional flows.

BTC flirted with the upper bound of its recent range, briefly touching 110k before settling near 108k. Total3 (ex-BTC/ETH) continues to lag its May highs but remains firm at $3.31T, hinting that a catch-up rally in alts could be forming. ETH continues to consolidate around $2.5k, with ETHBTC holding range.

Looking ahead, the setup remains constructive. Trade tensions are easing, the Fed is inching closer to cuts, fiscal firepower is now on paper and signed, and crypto has tailwinds from both policy and product. With “Crypto Week” in Congress set for July 14, featuring debates on the GENIUS Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC legislation, the market could see yet another leg higher if the policy tone remains cooperative.

• China Caixin Mfg PMI 50.4 vs 49 expected
• China Caixin Services PMI 50.6 vs 51.0 expected
• EU Inflation Rate YoY flash 2% as expected, Core Inflation YoY 2.3% as expected
• US JOLTS Job Openings 7.769M vs 7.3M expected
• US Non Farm Payrolls 147k vs 110k expected
• US Unemployment Rate 4.1% vs 4.3% expected
• US ISM Services PMI 50.8 vs 50.5 expected
• President Trump signed the “Big Beautiful Bill” officially
• The “Invest America Act” was passed by Congress, where U.S. newborns will have a $1,000 tax-deferred investment account starting July 4, 2026
• Robinhood launched tokenized stocks, layer 2 blockchain plans, perpetual futures in the EU, and staking in the US
• Circle applied for a US National banking license
• SEC approved staked Ethereum and Solana ETFs, and Grayscale’s large-cap fund that includes BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA
• US House Committee on Financial Services announces 14 July 2025 as “Crypto Week” - where the GENIUS Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act will be further discussed

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC’s uptrend remains intact, though the only shortcoming is the lack of significant volume increase.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is performing as anticipated, but likewise, the trading volume remains subdued.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still consolidating with a slight bullish bias. Recently, it has formed a small ascending triangle, showing a gradual price uptick.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Total3 is undergoing a steady sideways consolidation, yet the broader trend still points towards a regional uptrend. A breakout from the current range may trigger an attempt towards new highs.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3/BTC has held steady for the past three sessions. While this hasn't yet reversed the broader downtrend, it does offer some initial signs of stabilization, which is an encouraging early signal.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The Market Leverage Ratio has remained largely unchanged, indicating that the recent deleveraging pressure may have subsided.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

After a steady decline from ~$72B on 30 June to a low of ~$68.5B on 2 July, OI surged sharply, peaking at ~$77B on 3 July alongside BTC price testing new highs just below $110K.

This spike suggests renewed speculative interest and possibly fresh long positioning ahead of the 4th of July holiday.

However, by 5–6 July, OI moderated to ~$73B, indicating some profit-taking or position trimming. Despite this, BTC held firm above $108K, with a slight uptick in OI again on 7 July, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment remains intact.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

There was a sharp drop in funding to negative levels at -0.0075 as BTC rallied to 107k, indicating that shorts started to pile in on perps. However, the negative funding subsided as price continued to hover near the top range, eventually rallying further to 108k.

Funding increased with the rally, striking closer to 0.01 bullish levels at 0.0074- indicating overall bullish speculative positions.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

BTC price action showed resilience, with a sharp bounce off sub-$106K lows to reclaim territory above $109K. Throughout the rebound, funding rates steadily climbed, with both actual trending higher into the end of the week — currently at 0.0069. This sustained positive funding suggests a build-up of long positioning in perpetual futures, reflecting growing bullish sentiment.

The divergence mid-week, where funding cooled into negative territory as price climbed, may indicate temporary hedging or reduced speculative aggression before re-accelerating.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

ETH OI continued to increase and make new highs from last week’s positive momentum, peaking at around ~34.7b as the ETH price stopped short of 2.6k- indicating continued position taking into the bullish price momentum.

OI and price eased slightly over the weekend as traders possibly took profits, but have continued their steady grind up on the Monday open.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Funding remains overall positive, with only very brief dips to negative after price rallies. This is in stark contrast to BTC, where negative funding dipped for longer.

There seems to be less short interest in capital for ETH. Sentiment for ETH continues to remain structurally bullish, with funding getting closer to 0.01 as sentiment improves.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

Similar to BTC, ETH long/short ratio was volatile throughout the week, oscillating between long and short as traders actively repositioned. However, the volatility is a lot more extreme, continuously flipping between long and short.

This shows a market that is still searching for directional conviction.

SUMMARY

Last week, markets experienced a swift shift from geopolitical fear to a strong risk-on rally.

The U.S.-Iran tensions de-escalated rapidly, with Iran’s limited response and Trump’s quick ceasefire calming investor nerves. Oil prices retraced sharply, and risk assets surged, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs.

In crypto, BTC rebounded to 108K, ETH remained steady around 2.5K, and TOTAL3 showed early signs of stabilization with potential for altcoin catch-up.

The passage of the GENIUS Act marked a key regulatory milestone for stablecoins, boosting market confidence.

With easing geopolitical risks, softening trade rhetoric, and a patient Fed, the market backdrop remains supportive, though headline-driven volatility still requires traders to stay flexible.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal