Crypto Market Pulse - June 23, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Markets found themselves gripped less by inflation gauges and central bank statements, and more by the smoke trails of missiles and the growing threat of full-blown regional war. Central bank meetings, including the Fed’s widely expected decision to hold rates steady, took a backseat as the escalation between Israel and Iran dominated the narrative.

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged. But the tone was anything but dovish. Policymakers maintained a hawkish tilt, citing near-term inflation expectations that remain stubbornly elevated. Tariffs were again flagged as a meaningful upside risk to prices, and the Fed reiterated its “wait and see” stance, clearly in no hurry to pivot until inflation shows more definitive softening.

But all eyes were on geopolitics. The Israel–Iran conflict, which began with targeted strikes and verbal threats, has now morphed into something far more systemic. Missile exchanges continued through the week with no diplomatic off-ramps in sight. Markets are increasingly focused on the Strait of Hormuz —a critical chokepoint for global oil flows —as a potential flashpoint. Should Tehran respond to pressure by threatening or blocking this strategic passage, the resulting supply shock would send crude prices soaring and reignite global inflation fears overnight.

President Trump has only added fuel to the fire. His language this week was uncompromising, demanding Iran’s “Unconditional Surrender,” while publicly backing Israel’s aggressive posture.

Any hopes of de-escalation evaporated over the weekend. In a dramatic turn, the United States formally entered the conflict, launching coordinated airstrikes alongside Israel on three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi swiftly condemned the U.S. for “betraying diplomacy,” warning of “everlasting consequences.”

Risk assets recoiled. Crypto, which had previously been holding relatively steady despite mounting tensions, finally cracked. Bitcoin dropped ~9% to trade below 99K, ETH broke its range to 2.2K, and Total3 slid through support to 770 billion. With the escalation hitting over the weekend, TradFi markets haven’t yet fully priced in the latest developments—but given the SPX already closed 1% lower on the week, further risk-off moves look likely as trading resumes.

The geopolitical crisis has hijacked the macro narrative. For now, inflation prints, trade progress, and central bank jawboning are all background noise. Until clarity emerges—either through de-escalation or decisive resolution—markets will remain hostage to the headlines, and volatility is likely to stay elevated.

• China Retail Sales YoY 6.4% vs 5% expected
• China Unemployment Rate 5% vs 5.1% expected
• Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.5% as expected
• US Retail Sales MoM -0.9% vs -0.7% expected
• UK Inflation Rate YoY 3.4% as expected
• US holds rates steady at 4.5% as expected
• Bank of England holds rates at 4.25% as expected
• Japan Inflation Rate YoY 3.5% vs 3.6% previously
• UK Retail Sales MoM -2.7% vs -0.5% expected

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC encountered two consecutive rejections at the daily MA30 last week, which subsequently triggered an accelerated downward move, bringing the price back to the key 100k support level. On Sunday, BTC briefly broke below this threshold but managed to reclaim it by the close, underscoring the significance of this area as a pivotal battleground. Going forward, this level will serve as a critical inflection point. A bullish scenario would require a prompt recovery with sustained price action above 100k, validating the recent breakdown as a potential false move. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above this level after a brief consolidation, further downside pressure is likely to resume.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH also broke below its daily support level, with price action compressing beneath the daily MA30 and ultimately accelerating through a key support zone. However, it has since found new support around the 2100 level. This recent sharp decline appears to be approaching its exhaustion phase. On the higher timeframe, ETH’s monthly chart still maintains a strong reversal structure, indicating underlying bullish potential despite the recent correction.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has been moving in tandem with ETH and has also experienced an accelerated decline.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is still maintaining its downward trend and is unlikely to show signs of stabilization until it approaches the marked demand zone.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

There are currently no clear signs of reversal or bottom formation in the altcoin market. The overall structure remains weak, and altcoins continue to underperform. Without a significant shift in momentum or broader market support, the weakness may persist in the near term. Patience and selective positioning will be key moving forward.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

If the Market Leverage Ratio reverses at this support-resistance flip level, it would indicate an overall improvement in market liquidity and investor sentiment. Therefore, close attention should be paid to changes at this key level.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

BTC hovered near all-time highs at 110k with Open Interest floating at highs, before geopolitical tensions saw unwinding of positions- OI dropped considerably with the retracement of spot to 105k.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Whilst funding initially decreased as BTC retraced, it has now recovered to the same levels when it was near the highs of the week, indicating a relative continuation of sentiment.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Accounts have mostly been short for the whole week of trading, in contrast to the positive funding we saw, showing clever divergence between capital and accounts.

There could be trapped shorts that lead to an impulse move to the upside from such a setup.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

Open Interest increased as ETH rallied to 2.8k, before retracing with the price, echoing the market-wide retracement from the Iran-Israel conflict.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Funding dipped briefly before building back to near the bullish 0.01 levels. Sentiment for ETH remains structurally bullish, with funding flirting with 0.01 levels from time to time.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

• Similarly, accounts have mostly been short for the whole week of trading, in contrast to the positive funding we saw, showing clever divergence between capital and accounts

SUMMARY

Markets shifted their attention away from inflation data and central bank decisions, focusing instead on the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The Federal Reserve, as widely expected, kept interest rates unchanged but maintained a firmly hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation risks remain elevated and showing no urgency to pivot policy in the near term.

The situation in the Middle East quickly took center stage. Over the weekend, the conflict intensified significantly as the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran responded with sharp condemnation and warned of severe, long-lasting consequences, further fueling fears of a broader regional war.

Risk assets reacted sharply. Crypto markets, which had been relatively resilient, saw notable declines—Bitcoin fell around 9% to trade below $99K, ETH broke lower to $2.2K, and Total3 breached key support levels. Traditional financial markets have not yet fully absorbed the impact, but with the S&P 500 closing lower last week, additional downside looks likely as trading resumes.

At this point, geopolitics has overtaken macroeconomics as the primary market driver. Until there is a clear path toward de-escalation or resolution, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to headlines, with elevated volatility set to continue.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal