Crypto Market Pulse - June 30, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

After a whirlwind stretch of geopolitical chaos, last week felt almost like whiplash. What began as a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East quickly morphed into a full-blown risk-on rally, as the initial panic from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran gave way to rapid de-escalation.

The geopolitical overhang from last week’s U.S.-Iran escalation faded with remarkable speed. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in Qatar, clearly telegraphed and executed with surgical caution, caused minimal damage, thanks to prior warnings and empty targets. With Trump declaring a ceasefire shortly after, and Israel delivering one final “symbolic” response, traders collectively decided the chapter was closed. Risk assets took off. Oil prices retraced to pre-conflict levels, erasing the war premium almost overnight. The Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 punched through its previous record to close at 6,173. Safe havens softened, while risk appetite surged.

With the geopolitical overhang lifted (for now), attention turned squarely back to macro. In a Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell stuck to the script, preaching patience on interpreting the inflationary impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, President Trump added his usual color, hinting that the early July deadline for reinstating massive tariffs might be flexible. “We can do whatever we want,” he quipped, leaving markets to infer that escalation is not imminent. But it wasn’t all smooth…trade talks with Canada collapsed over digital services taxes, with the U.S. abruptly ending all negotiations. Whether this is another episode in the now well-worn “TACO” trade remains to be seen. For now, investors didn’t blink.

Even with Core PCE coming in slightly hotter than expected, the market leaned bullish. BTC climbed back to 108K, brushing up against prior highs. ETH remained muted at 2.5K, while TOTAL3 lingered at 838B- still trailing the May and June highs, hinting at potential catch-up trades ahead. While altcoin performance has cooled, BTC dominance and ETF flows suggest that institutional demand remains anchored and patient.

On the policy front, crypto scored a major win. The U.S. Senate officially passed the GENIUS Act, the first stablecoin bill to clear after years of political gridlock. The decisive 68-30 vote puts crypto regulation squarely back on the table, and importantly, adds legitimacy to the stablecoin ecosystem in a way markets have long craved.

Crypto equities responded in kind. Coinbase (COIN) surged 40% on the week to close at $353, breaking out of its multi-week range. Circle (CRCL), which had gone vertical post-IPO (from $31 to nearly $300), finally saw profit-taking kick in, closing the week at $180.43.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance still appears to be higher. With Middle East tensions de-escalating, trade rhetoric turning dovish, and the Fed inching closer to cuts with time, the macro landscape is tilting more supportive. But in a market steered by headline risk and an unpredictable White House, complacency remains a luxury. As always in this environment, especially under Trump 2.0, the only constant is surprise. Stay nimble.

• China Retail Sales YoY 6.4% vs 5% expected
• UK S&P Mfg PMI flash 47.7 vs 46.6, Services PMI Flash 51.3 vs 51.3
• US Global Mfg PMI flash 52 vs 51, Services 53.1 vs 52.9
• Canada Inflation Rate YoY 1.7% as expected, MoM 0.6% vs 0.5%
• US Core PCE MoM 0.2% vs 0.1% expected, YoY 2.7% vs 2.6%
• US Personal Spending MoM -0.1% vs 0.1% expected, Personal Income MoM -0.4% vs 0.3%

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC's strong reversal rally last week has validated that the breakdown below the 100k level was a false breakout. The broader trend remains bullish, and the market appears poised to challenge new all-time highs in the near future.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH's recent pullback has not altered its prevailing monthly uptrend. Last week’s strong reversal validated our thesis, and a decisive break above this key support-resistance level is likely to pave the way for further upside.

ETH/BTC

We expect ETH to show strong performance in July, with a good chance of outperforming BTC during this period.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

The early stabilization of Total3 indicates that the broader altcoin market might be bottoming out, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment. Coupled with easing macro risks and improving liquidity conditions, this sets the stage for a possible rebound. However, confirmation through sustained volume and price action above resistance levels will be crucial before a full trend reversal can be assumed.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Total3/BTC has held steady for the past three sessions. While this hasn't yet reversed the broader downtrend, it does offer some initial signs of stabilization, which is an encouraging early signal.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

Market Leverage Ratio has stabilized over the past few days, suggesting that the recent deleveraging phase may have eased. While this is an encouraging sign, a sustained recovery would require further confirmation through stronger momentum.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

OI increased as traders put on fresh positions with the easing of Middle East tensions, coinciding with the increase in spot BTC price.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

There was a sharp drop in funding to negative levels at -0.0075 as BTC rallied to 107k, indicating that shorts started to pile in on perps. However, the negative funding subsided as price continued to hover near the top range, eventually rallying further to 108k.

Funding increased with the rally, striking closer to 0.01 bullish levels at 0.0074- indicating overall bullish speculative positions.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Accounts have flipped from being mostly short to now mostly being long, except for the occasional short domination over weekend illiquidity.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

OI increased as traders put on fresh positions with the easing of Middle East tensions, coinciding with the increase in spot ETH price.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Funding remains overall positive, with only very brief dips to negative after price rallies. This is in stark contrast to BTC, where negative funding dipped for longer.

There seems to be less short interest in capital for ETH. Sentiment for ETH continues to remain structurally bullish, with funding getting closer to 0.01 as sentiment improves.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

Similarly, accounts continue to mostly be short for the whole week of trading, in contrast to the positive funding we saw, showing divergence between capital and accounts

There could be trapped shorts that lead to an impulse move to the upside from such a setup.

SUMMARY

Last week, markets experienced a swift shift from geopolitical fear to a strong risk-on rally.

The U.S.-Iran tensions de-escalated rapidly, with Iran’s limited response and Trump’s quick ceasefire calming investor nerves. Oil prices retraced sharply, and risk assets surged, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs.

In crypto, BTC rebounded to 108K, ETH remained steady around 2.5K, and TOTAL3 showed early signs of stabilization with potential for altcoin catch-up.

The passage of the GENIUS Act marked a key regulatory milestone for stablecoins, boosting market confidence.

With easing geopolitical risks, softening trade rhetoric, and a patient Fed, the market backdrop remains supportive, though headline-driven volatility still requires traders to stay flexible.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal