Crypto Market Pulse - June 9, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Risk assets continued to defy gravity. Equities pushed higher, with the S&P 500 finally breaking through the psychologically charged 6,000 mark, driven in part by a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls print of 139k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing the narrative of a labor market that remains firm, but not overheating, giving the Fed more reason to stay on hold.

The crypto space was quieter by comparison. Bitcoin remained range-bound, stuck between 100K and 105K with muted positioning and no clear directional catalyst. Ethereum outperformed slightly, holding firm around its 200-day moving average and maintaining strength on the ETHBTC pair, which continues to hover near the top of its recent range. Structurally, the setup remains constructive, but a breakout still needs a spark.

Midweek volatility from weaker-than-expected ADP employment and ISM prints did little to shake sentiment. Instead, the market quickly latched onto a familiar story: fiscal dominance. Trump wasted no time in redirecting attention, openly blaming Powell for "falling behind" the ECB. Hours later, he called for the permanent abolition of the U.S. debt ceiling—an aggressive move that threw more fuel onto the fire of long-term fiscal expansion. The administration followed up with Treasury Secretary Bessant, unveiling the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” proposing 100% tax expensing for new U.S. manufacturing and R&D facilities. Markets are now looking ahead to the Fourth of July vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBB), which could further codify the growing role of fiscal stimulus in the macro playbook.

Adding political drama to the mix, the week ended with an accelerating feud between Trump and Elon Musk. Trump publicly severed ties with Musk and warned of “very serious consequences” if he funds Democratic candidates in future elections, without specifying the consequences.

This fallout began after Musk criticized Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination,” and briefly revisited claims linking Trump to Jeffrey Epstein before deleting them. Trump threatened to pull government contracts from Musk’s companies and confirmed he had “no intention” of repairing their relationship. The public clash adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the broader political and economic backdrop.

In short, markets remain driven by narrative momentum. Equities are levitating on the back of a “just right” labor print and growing fiscal momentum, while crypto remains in saddle-up mode awaiting new triggers. With political drama—notably the Trump–Musk feud—adding to the noise, the tape remains headline-sensitive. The big question now: will fiscal and political developments support another leg higher, or will policy missteps and political conflict inject volatility? Keep close tabs on OBBB timing, debt-ceiling debates, and any escalation of this White House feud.

• US S&P Manufacturing PMI 52 vs 52.3 expected
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 49.5 expected
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.3 vs 50.6 expected
• US S&P Services PMI 53.7 vs 52.3 expected
• US ISM Services PMI 49.9 vs 42 expected
• ECB holds rates at 2.15% as expected
• US NFP 139k vs 130k, Unemployment Rate 4.2% as expected

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC found strong support at the demand zone, leading to a solid rebound. The price is now hovering between support and resistance, and we need to wait patiently for a clearer directional move.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH remains range-bound within last week's price levels, continuing to trade sideways without a clear breakout or breakdown.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has also seen little movement compared to last week, continuing to trade in a narrow range.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

After breaking below the trendline, TOTAL3 continued to move lower. While there was a brief bounce, the overall trend remains bearish.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

After making new lows, TOTAL3/BTC has not seen increased volatility and continues to consolidate within a very tight price range.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The pullback in the Market Leverage Ratio shows that the market is still cautious. BTC’s recent rebound lacks conviction from leverage-driven flows. Until we see renewed risk appetite — reflected in a rising leverage ratio — the upside may remain limited. For stronger confirmation of trend continuation, keep an eye on both price action and how leverage evolves from here.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

The end of the week at 6 June saw BTC drop to range lows at 101k along with preceding drops in OI before that- a sign of exiting positions, before a bounce to range highs of 105k saw fresh OI increases

BTC PERPS FUNDING

The end of the trading week saw BTC perps funding drop to negative -0.008 at one point, even as BTC rebounded from the range lows, indicating bearish position taking at the range top.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Shorts dominated when BTC retraced at the end of the trading week, coinciding with the dip to negative funding rates, showing broad-based bearishness on the move. However, accounts have shifted to a Long dominance since then.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

ETH Open Interest dipped with the pullback in price, which remains at the range lows compared to BTC.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Funding remains positive despite the retracement of price from range highs, showing slight bullishness to neutral on ETH at the moment.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

Short accounts continue to dominate, which runs contrary to more bullish indications from the funding we saw, suggesting bullishness from the larger accounts but bearishness among a wider number of participants.

SUMMARY

• Risk assets continued their upward march, buoyed by a “just right” U.S. jobs report and rising fiscal optimism, with the S&P 500 finally breaching the 6,000 mark.
• While equity markets rallied, crypto remained subdued—Bitcoin ranged between 100K–105K with low conviction, and Ethereum held its ground near its 200-day MA, showing mild relative strength on ETH/BTC.
• Macro headlines dominated midweek, as Trump reignited fiscal stimulus chatter with the proposed “Big Beautiful Bill” and a push to eliminate the debt ceiling, fueling expectations of long-term fiscal expansion.
• Political tension escalated with a public feud between Trump and Musk, injecting additional uncertainty. Overall, markets are narrative-driven, with equities thriving on fiscal momentum while crypto awaits a fresh catalyst.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal