Crypto Market Pulse - March 24, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• US retail sales MoM 0.2% (vs 0.6% exp).
• US Industrial Production MoM 0.7% (vs 0.2% exp).
• BOJ holds rates at 0.5% as expected.
• FOMC holds rates at 4.5% as expected, but GDP growth forecast downgrade from 2.1% to 1.7% while core inflation forecast increased from 2.5% to 2.8%. The Fed also announced a slowdown in the pace of decline of its securities holdings.
• BOE holds rates at 4.5% as expected.
• Japan core inflation rate YoY at 3% (vs 2.9% exp).
• Bessent says on April 2, each country will get a tariff number, and 15% of countries will make up bulk of tariffs.
• German lawmakers backed defense spending plans that exempt spending on defence and security from Germany’s strict debt rules, and create a 500B infrastructure fund.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still consolidating at this key level, showing signs of stabilizing. A short rebound to the upside can be expected here.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC rebounded nicely last week, but trading volume has been continuously declining. It may need more time to consolidate before a bigger move ahead.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH also rebounded last week, but the trading volume was significantly low, which could be concerning for traders. We need to observe further to confirm whether the price rebound will have follow-through.

ETH/BTC

After BTC and ETH finally saw some relief and a rebound last week, ETH/BTC has also been consolidating sideways, with ETH showing relative strength.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Although TOTAL3 has broken the downtrend line, trading volume has been gradually decreasing. To confirm whether this breakout is valid, we need an increase in volume. Therefore, we should keep monitoring whether the volume can catch up.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still lingering around last week’s levels, but a move could be on the horizon soon.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The leverage ratio has bounced off a key support zone, indicating renewed interest at this level. If it holds, we could see a potential recovery.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

While OI has been on the decline since Bitcoin’s ATH, indicating an overall decrease in speculative and hedging activity, we are seeing an increase in OI in March along with the rebound in BTC, indicating a possible continued momentum increase in the price action.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

OI had continued to increase and stay elevated up to Feb 2025 despite ETH declining from its high in December- which indicated that Eth had further downside to go.

However, the OI finally went down since then with the price, indicating an exit of positions which could finally slow the downward momentum in price.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

BTC perps funding has been decreasing with the decrease in spot since the highs in Dec and Jan and relatively stable, indicating that there is a lack of leveraged speculative activity fading the trend down. However, it remains positive, which also indicates that there is not much speculative short activity.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Other than select periods of negative funding coinciding with sharp drops in ETH in Feb, ETH perps funding has been decreasing and relatively stable, indicating that there is a lack of leveraged speculative activity driving flows- and reduction in leverage.

BTCUSDT LONG/SHORT RATIO

The long/short ratio has seen a reduction in longs, however, the market remains slightly net long with the ratio of long/short accounts dropping from 2.94 to 1.07, suggesting that the market remains bullish, but signaling a possible slowdown in momentum.

ETHUSDT LONG/SHORT RATIO

The long/short ratio remains net longs at 75% longs vs shorts. However, the ratio of long/short accounts has gradually reduced to 3.02. This suggests that while the market remains biased long, there is a lack of new buyers in the market while existing buyers exit- suggesting a possible lack of follow-through in buying.

SUMMARY

• BTC experienced volatility, initially dropping to 81K due to weak retail sales and tariff uncertainty but rebounding to 87K after the FOMC’s dovish stance and QT slow down, before closing around 84-85K.
• ETH followed BTC’s movements, benefiting from improved macro sentiment.
• Altcoins remain tied to broader risk appetite, with their recovery dependent on continued macro support.
• Looking ahead, PCE data will be crucial—strong inflation could reduce rate cut expectations, while weakening growth may reinforce a dovish Fed stance, supporting risk assets.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal