Crypto Market Pulse - May 19, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• US Core Inflation MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• US inflation rate MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• UK GDP QoQ 0.7% vs 0.6% expected, US PPI MoM -0.5% vs 0.2% expected
• US Retail Sales MoM 0.1% vs 0% expected
• Japan GDP QoQ -0.2% vs -0.1% expected (down from 0.6% previously)
• Moody’s downgraded USA’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After a week of consolidation at elevated levels, BTC has broken out above 105K, entering the prior ATH supply zone. However, the current price action suggests waning momentum — successive rallies are shortening despite sustained volume. This divergence indicates potential buyer exhaustion. Should BTC fail to establish a new high in the near term, a corrective pullback and period of consolidation may be necessary to reset and build the structural strength required for a sustainable breakout.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is currently encountering resistance within a prior high-volume node, where significant supply was previously distributed. This area, now acting as a supply zone, has temporarily capped the recent rally. Whether ETH can sustain upward momentum will depend on how the price reacts to this region in the coming sessions. The 2100–2150 area remains a critical support to monitor in case of a pullback, as it could serve as a base for the next leg higher.

ETH/BTC

After a sharp rebound, ETH/BTC is showing signs of stalling, suggesting that ETH's relative strength is fading despite BTC continuing to push toward new highs. This divergence indicates that ETH may require a period of corrective pullback or consolidation before regaining upward momentum. For ETH to reassert leadership, a structural base needs to form, ideally with a resurgence in relative demand versus BTC.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 shows signs of pullback after testing the underside of a previous top structure — a common reaction as price re-encounters resistance and enters a prior supply zone. While a retracement at this level is expected, the key question is whether this evolves into a healthy consolidation or marks a rejection that could signal a broader trend reversal. Price action and volume behavior in the coming sessions will be crucial in determining the next directional bias.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

Despite BTC's continued strength, the TOTAL3/BTC ratio has retreated to its lower range, highlighting the persistent underperformance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Unless a strong reversal emerges from this level, we may see a renewed divergence phase, with BTC maintaining leadership while the broader altcoin market remains structurally weak. This dynamic reinforces a risk-off posture toward altcoins in the short term.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The market leverage ratio showed little change over the past week, suggesting that both on-exchange and off-exchange capital remains sidelined, waiting for clearer directional confirmation. The lack of aggressive positioning indicates that participants are cautiously observing whether price can break higher before committing further leverage.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

OI was pretty muted throughout the week with the range-bound price action, before an increase over the weekend’s price spike.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Funding retraced slightly from the bullish levels of 0.01, but has slowly trended up with the weekend rally.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

BTC was generally favoured towards shorts during the range-bound week, before swinging between longs and shorts during the weekend rally.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

OI continued spiking with the rally in ETH to 2.6k new short-term highs, before retracing with price action.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

ETH funding continues its positive momentum, and with the rally in price, has seen a significant increase to levels above 0.01- marking an outright shift to bullishness.

Whilst it has retraced slightly, it still hovers near the 0.01 mark.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

ETH long/short ratio was mainly dominated by short accounts, indicating still lots of short accounts despite the aggressiveness in long funding.

SUMMARY

• BTC broke above the 105k level after a week of consolidation but is now testing a major supply zone near its previous ATH. While volume remains elevated, the shortening rallies suggest momentum may be fading. Without a decisive breakout soon, a pullback or consolidation phase may be needed to recharge.
• ETH has stalled in a previous high-volume area, encountering resistance while BTC continues to trend higher. ETH/BTC also pulled back, signaling relative weakness. Unless ETH finds support and reclaims strength, the altcoin market may remain under pressure.
• TOTAL3 shows signs of rejection at the underside of a former top structure, while TOTAL3/BTC has returned to cycle lows. This divergence reinforces the current capital preference for BTC over the broader altcoin space.
• On the funding side, the market leverage ratio has remained flat, indicating participants are still waiting for a clearer breakout before adding directional risk.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal