Crypto Market Pulse - May 26, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• China Industrial Production YoY 6.1% vs 5.5% expected
• China Retail Sales YoY 5.1% VS 5.5% expected
• China unemployment rate 5.1% vs 5.2% expected
• EU Inflation Rate MoM 0.6% as expected, YoY 2.2% as expected
• RBA holds interest rates at 3.85% as expected
• Canada Inflation Rate YoY 1.7% vs 1.6% expected, MoM -0.1% vs -0.2% expected
• UK inflation Rate YoY 3.5% vs 3.3% expected, MoM 1.2% vs 1.1% expected
• UK Mfg PMI 45.1 vs 46 expected, Svcs PMI 50.2 vs 50 expected
• US S&P Mfg PMI 52.3 VS 50.1 expected, Svcs 52.3 vs 50.8 expected
• Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.5% vs 3.4% expected (increase from 3.2%)
• UK Retail Sales MoM 1.2% vs 0.2% expected, YoY 5% vs 4.5% expected
• Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC briefly paused around the previous high before decisively breaking through the resistance zone. Although there was a slight pullback after the breakout, there are no clear signs of a trend reversal. BTC continues to show bullish momentum and remains uptrend after reaching new highs. The previous resistance zone around 106,000–110,000 USDT may now act as a support area. A potential retest of this level could confirm its strength as a new support.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still consolidating within the supply zone we identified last week. The price remains range-bound, showing no decisive breakout or breakdown. At this stage, we need to stay patient and wait for the market to provide a clearer directional move before taking further action.

ETH/BTC

While ETH is consolidating, ETH/BTC has been pulling back — a notable divergence considering BTC just made a new high. This relative weakness is understandable, given ETH’s strong rally in previous weeks. Some profit-taking and capital rotation into BTC is likely contributing to the underperformance. We’ll be watching closely to see if ETH/BTC finds support and reverses, which could signal renewed strength and possibly an upcoming rotation back into ETH.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 has reached a key level. Price is currently being compressed between a horizontal resistance and a rising trendline support, forming a potential breakout setup. This type of price action typically precedes a decisive move. We expect the market to soon choose a direction — either breaking above the resistance with continuation momentum or failing to hold the trendline, leading to a bearish breakdown. Traders should closely monitor this zone, as the outcome will likely set the tone for the broader altcoin market in the short to medium term.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC has once again returned to its recent lows, reflecting continued underperformance of altcoins relative to BTC. While there are signs of bullish divergence forming on some momentum indicators, we have yet to see any confirmed reversal signal on the chart. As such, it's too early to call for a recovery in altcoin strength. A sustained bounce or a clear structure shift will be needed before we can confidently say TOTAL3 is regaining traction versus BTC. Until then, caution is warranted when positioning in alts, especially against the backdrop of BTC dominance.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

The market leverage ratio showed little change over the past week, suggesting that both on-exchange and off-exchange capital remains sidelined, waiting for clearer directional confirmation. The lack of aggressive positioning indicates that participants are cautiously observing whether price can break higher before committing further leverage.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

BTC reached new ATHs at 112k- and OI peaked together with the rally- signifying continued strength in new positions, though OI has retraced slightly with the price.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Funding peaked with the rally in BTC to ATHs, and remained over the bullish levels of 0.01- before retracing slightly below that level as price retraced over the weekend.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Accounts remain net longs, with a large swing between short to longs and finally back to net longs during the weekend as BTC retraced from its highs and then rebounded to net longs in early week price action.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

ETH OI also peaked in the week with ETH touching 2.7k as more positions were opened- OI remains elevated.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Funding breached the bullish levels of 0.01 higher as ETH touched 2.7k, but funding has now retraced to below 0.005, which is traditionally a bearish level.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

Accounts saw swings between longs and shorts before stabilizing roughly neutral to slight short dominance.

SUMMARY

• This week’s markets were shaken by mixed macro data showing persistent inflation and resilient growth across major economies, complicating central bank outlooks.
• Equities declined amid Moody’s downgrade and escalating U.S.-Europe trade tensions, while long-term bond yields surged to multi-year highs. In contrast, crypto showed relative strength, with Bitcoin holding above $100K despite a modest pullback and altcoins attracting ongoing interest.
• A major positive catalyst was the passage of the GENIUS Act in Washington, providing clear regulatory guidance for stablecoins and boosting investor confidence.
• Overall, heightened volatility presents potential entry points, with market direction hinging largely on the evolution of trade tensions.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal