Crypto Market Pulse - May 5, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• China caixin manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs 49.8 expected
• Germany retail sales -0.2% vs -0.4% expected
• Euro Area GDP growth rate QoQ 0.4% vs 0.2% expected
• USA GDP growth rate QoQ -0.3% vs 0.3% expected
• USA ISM manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 48
• US Non Farm Payrolls 177k vs 130k expected
• US Unemployment Rate 4.2% as expected
• Following the US exempting smartphones and other electronics from tariffs on China, China has quietly exempted some US goods from tariffs as well
• The US has reached out to China for tariff talks, according to Beijing-backed news outlets

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC briefly surged to 98k last week before pulling back quickly, but it has remained in a 5% price range, consolidating. We still consider this a sideways adjustment until a clear trend reversal to the upside emerges.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is consolidating solidly above 1750, and we’ll be watching to see if it can gain strong upward momentum.

ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC pair appears to have bottomed out, and it feels like ETH is poised to gain stronger momentum than BTC at any moment.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is also forming a bottom. Although it's experiencing a slight pullback near the supply zone, this kind of consolidation is healthy. We also need to watch whether the price retests the lower demand zone, holds support, and regains upward momentum.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC has once again retreated to its lower range, where any upward bounce is likely to be strong. Combined with our other analyses, we believe a rebound is imminent here.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

Capital retention persists as market participants await directional confirmation, with outflow metrics remaining subdued.

BTC OPEN INTEREST

OI spiked with the rally in BTC price on leading up to 2nd May, but gradually subsided over the weekend with the price decline, likely as traders close their positions.

BTC PERPS FUNDING

Funding peaked for the week at the weekly high for BTC, before turning negative as shorts came through, and price subsequently followed down as well.

BTC LONG/SHORT RATIO

Long/short ratio is gradually trending towards shorts at the end of the week, but nothing too substantial.

ETH OPEN INTEREST

Spike in OI with the rally in ETH price towards the end of the week, similarly to BTC. OI has gradually decreased but remains elevated.

ETH PERPS FUNDING

Unlike what we saw in BTC, ETH perps funding increased and did not turn negative from the rally, indicating more perps longs than spot longs.

Funding has since trended lower but remains on the positive side.

It is worth noting that funding is still below 0.01%, so outright bullishness is not seen yet.

ETH LONG/SHORT RATIO

The ratio largely leans towards shorts, indicating that the market is still bearish on ETH.

SUMMARY

• Markets climbed last week despite mixed macro signals, buoyed by signs of easing U.S.-China tensions and hopes for trade negotiations. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.3% in Q1, but strong labor data helped sustain risk appetite. Crypto markets rallied alongside equities, with Bitcoin jumping from $93,500 to $97,900 before settling near $95,000, and Ethereum showing similar movement. Positive momentum came from the U.S. exempting some Chinese electronics from tariffs, prompting a reciprocal move from Beijing and signaling potential diplomatic progress. All eyes now turn to the upcoming FOMC guidance, which could inject fresh volatility.
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li, Travis Su, and Kenny Lee.

Edited by: Marianne Dasal