Crypto Market Pulse - September 08, 2025

LAST WEEK RECAP:

An unexpectedly soft labor print dominated the first week of September. Payrolls increased by just 22,000, unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, and wage growth remained modest. This amplified recession risks and solidified expectations for policy easing.

Notably, ETF outflows continued—US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw heavy redemptions in August, with Ethereum's surge of 25 percent over the summer partially offset by recent profit-taking. Positioning data indicates that BTC remains heavily long, while ETH positioning remains neutral, even as institutional inflows continue. Altcoin derivatives open interest surged, indicating elevated speculative activity in the broader market.

Technically, BTC breached key support levels early in the week, but stability above 110k suggests a potential base setup. The persistence of leveraged positions alongside heavy whale accumulation suggests fragility ahead of key events. Ethereum, with its 200 percent rally over five months, continues to benefit from institutional demand and ETF flows, reinforcing its growing role as “digital oil” for DeFi and infrastructure plays.

Looking ahead, August PPI and CPI prints will be the next macro catalysts. A softer inflation outcome would reinforce expectations for easing and potentially reignite crypto upside. Conversely, a surprise inflation uptick would likely prompt immediate risk repricing and pressure positioning. Given the sensitivity to macro data, crypto players should consider defined-risk strategies around these releases while monitoring ETF flow reversals and BTC support at the 110k–112k zone as potential turning points.

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August increased by 22,000, far below expectations; unemployment rose to 4.3%; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM, 3.7% YoY.
• PPI in July increased by 0.9% MoM, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.
• Fed funds futures now price a 90%+ probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting.
• BTC traded around $110,000, briefly dipping lower amid risk-off flows and seasonal weakness in September.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After breaking below the 112k neckline last week, BTC saw a brief rebound. On Friday, driven by employment data, it attempted an upside breakout but failed to sustain momentum. The key question now is whether this move represents a retest before continuing lower, or if BTC will consolidate around the neckline before making another breakout attempt. The critical level to monitor is 108k, and as long as this support remains intact, downside risks are contained. A clear move below 108k would confirm further weakness.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has been consolidating sideways for the past week with no significant change in trend. Trading volumes have gradually declined, suggesting that a new directional move is likely to emerge soon.

ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC pair is showing signs of slipping below the 30-day moving average, indicating that ETH’s relative strength may weaken in the short term. This setup suggests the potential for a downside correction in the near future.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting a period of market indecision. While price briefly tested the upper boundary, the move was not accompanied by a meaningful increase in volume, raising concerns that the breakout lacks conviction. The presence of a significant supply zone just above current levels adds to the resistance overhead. Without stronger participation, the risk remains that any breakout attempt may turn into a false move, and the market could continue to trade sideways until volume returns to confirm a sustained direction.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still in an uptrend, and when combined with TOTAL3’s breakout, the overall move shows relative strength. The only concern is trading volume, which remains too low relative to the price action.

MARKET LEVERAGE RATIO

While TOTAL3/BTC remains in an upward trend and the breakout structure still reflects relative strength, the market leverage ratio shows no significant increase in capital inflows. This divergence suggests that the broader rally lacks broad-based participation, with only a handful of altcoins leading the upside while the majority remain in consolidation or are seeing profit-taking pressure. Until leverage and volume improve, the sustainability of the move could remain in question.

SUMMARY

• The weak labor print, with slowing payroll growth and rising unemployment, has heightened concerns over recession risk while at the same time strengthening expectations for policy easing. This dynamic continues to anchor market sentiment and positions crypto as highly sensitive to incoming data.
  
• ETF redemptions have weighed on BTC, yet positioning data shows heavy long exposure persists. ETH flows remain more constructive, with institutional demand providing a steady bid despite neutral positioning. Meanwhile, the surge in altcoin derivatives open interest points to rising speculative activity, adding volatility potential.
  
• BTC’s ability to maintain stability above the 110k–112k zone will be critical in defining a potential base, while ETH’s structural bid from ETFs continues to support its role as “digital oil.” Upcoming August PPI and CPI prints are likely to be decisive—softer inflation may reignite upside momentum, whereas a surprise uptick risks triggering immediate repricing across crypto assets.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Traders Patrick Li and Travis Su.

Edited by: Shirley Castro