Weekly Crypto Market Update - January 15, 2024

LAST WEEK RECAP:

• SEC has approved all Bitcoin spot ETFs.
• U.S. CPI increased 0.3% MoM in Dec and 3.4% YoY, higher than the estimated 0.2% and 3.2%.
• USDC issuer Circle confidentially filed for US IPO, the second attempt to go public.
• SEC’s Twitter account was hacked and posted a fake BTC ETF approval notice one day before the official approval.
• ETH price increased after BTC ETF approval news, signalling ETH ETF narratives, which SEC needs to decide in May.
• Near foundation cut staff by 40%.
• Starkware CEO Uri Kolodny resigned due to family health issues.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX still can’t keep any real strength other than the occasional spike. This gives stock and crypto room to move.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC saw a large spike into 48k. After large rejection and closing back within the macro range of 30-45k, it seems pretty likely that BTC could drop to the mid/low 30s.

However, with the ETFs now being live, the actual underlying market structure of BTC will also change. This makes it harder to predict what will happen price-wise as the “character” of how BTC trades changed and there’s not enough price history yet to define it.

One could look at large-cap tech stocks for what’s possible regarding retracement. But at best, that’s still a wild guess.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

As mentioned last week, we expected an instant reversion in ETH/BTC after the BTC spot ETF approval. This was the case and because of the relative strength of ETH/BTC, it held its breakout level on ETH/USD.

If BTC can trade stable enough for just a few days, it’s quite likely for ETH to finish its rally into 2.8-3.3k area.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC retraced over 30 days of bleeding in 1 candle after the ETF approval. If this reversal is “real”, the ETH/BTC market should see trending behaviour from here on out till at least .067.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is flipping resistance into support. However harsh current altcoin correction may seem from a higher time frame perspective, it’s fairly healthy.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

As expected, ALT/BTC followed ETH/BTC. However, the ETH/BTC impulse was a lot stronger and ALT/BTC is still in range. If BTC slips hard to the downside, a breakout won't be likely just yet.

SUMMARY

• BTC dropped almost 20% post-ETF approval, with GBTC selling being the main narrative for the drop.
• ETH/BTC finally saw the large reversion, with Blackrock making comments about an ETH ETF making sense for later this year (likely late Q2-Q3).
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Marianne Dasal