Weekly Crypto Market Update - July 3, 2023

Last Week's Recap:

• Powell reaffirmed at least two hikes this year during an event in Europe.
• All 23 U.S. banks passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test.
• U.S. PCI increased 4.6% YoY v.s. 4.7% expected.
• SEC said BTC spot ETF filings are inadequate.
• MicroStrategy bought another 12,333 BTC and currently holds a total of 152,333 BTC.
• Azuki launched Azuki Elementals, but the floor price experienced a fast selloff due to a lack of distinctiveness between Azuki Elementals and the original Azuki tokens.

Legacy Markets - DXY

With this week being the start of the new quarter in markets, it’s good to zoom out and look at quarterly timeframes. DXY still seems range bound within 100-106.

Legacy Markets - VIX

VIX is still on the lows with lower-cap tech stocks starting to rally & crypto also getting stronger. The longer it keeps consolidating the higher the chances crypto catches up over the coming weeks/months to the big tech rally.

BTC Weekly View

BTC on the quarterly candles has also entered the 2021 range after all. Paired with all the institutional interest we saw at the end of Q2, with the ETF filings, it looks like crypto is setting up for an explosive second half of the year.

ETH Weekly View

ETH has spent the entire quarter building price structure on top of the 2021 support. With NFTs bleeding a lot last couple of weeks we think they might be frontrunning the incoming trend continuation in ETH. This same dynamic kept playing out on ALTBTC pairings also throughout the years. If ETH starts trending here we think there’s a good chance to see the price goes into the 3-3.5k zone.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC ratio is still within the range. However, the CME is launching an ETH/BTC futures contract in July. This paired with BTC being heavily tied to ETF news and ETH/BTC being at support it seems we could finally be gearing up for ETH/BTC wave to.

TOTAL3 - USD Market Strength

TOTAL3 is still under the 2021 range. Mainly telling us that the top 125 altcoins are underperforming ETH and BTC. There are of course select outliers that have been seeing outperformance.

TOTAL3 - BTC Market Strength

TOTAL3/BTC is still in a strong relative downtrend against BTC. We likely see some consolidation here on the ratio, with outperforming altcoins trending further upwards.

Summary:

• ETH/BTC ratio futures launching on the CME in July
• NFT value loss against ETH mirrors the ALTBTC dynamic the market typically sees before large rallies.
• The majority of alts are underperforming both BTC and ETH on the higher time scales, with only select large-cap altcoins and small on-chain coins seeing a good performance.
• The market still lacking retail participation to see marketwide good performance in the alt market. Waiting for a big wave in BTC / ETH or an altcoin segment to bubble to see them returning.

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Rizza Carla Ramos