Weekly Crypto Market Update - October 3, 2023

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

• U.S. core PCE increased 0.1% in August v.s. 0.2% est, the annual increase is 3.9%, the same as estimated.
• MicroStrategy bought another 5,445 BTC for $147.3M Since August, the total BTC holding is 158,245 with the average buy cost at $29,582.
• ETH Future ETF began trading in the U.S. on Oct 2nd.
• Su Zhu was arrested in Singapore. The court issued an arrest warrant and sentenced him to four months in prison.
• Binance fully exits Russia with the sale to CommEX.
• Kraken is planning to offer trading in U.S.-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds in 2024.
  

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY has broken the 106 level and is showing no signs of slowing down. However, with USDJPY being at central bank intervention levels and the technical target for DXY being near 109 there’s a good probability that we’re near the end of this rally. To an extent, equities should see relief and crypto could further exaggerate its relative strength from the last couple of weeks.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX has steadily been gaining strength. Together with DXY trending upwards, this has put pressure on equities. However for now it seems more like a “healthy correction”. Crypto however has been very resilient and even showed relative strength for the first time in a while the past week.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

As mentioned last week the BTC range is 25-28.6k. On the rally over the weekend, BTC perfectly tagged the upper range. For now, this range still holds. However, if BTC manages to clear 28.6k we’d expect a serious acceleration upwards. With multiple bullish catalysts (Spot ETF, Pro crypto election participants, halving) crypto might finally get some life back into it.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is also busy clearing the downtrend established in late 2021. With it currently trading near the apex point of the 2022 uptrend and original downtrend we also expect bigger movement here. The current action we’ve seen over the weekend seems like an early appetizer for what’s to come. ETH can seriously accelerate once it clears the 2k area.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC and ETH/USDT align they’re both at critical points from a longer-term perspective. For now, ETH/BTC is still at support feeling the pressure from the BTC spot etf narratives.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is also slowly rounding out on the lows, which is a huge positive. However under the circumstances that BTC has a large dominance wave on the back of a spot ETF we do think altcoins will underperform heavily in the short term.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC as mentioned has gained no relative strength so far other than a few outliers. If BTC manages to go on a solo run it most likely sucks the life out of the alts market in the short to midterm. Till BTC reaches a point of attention that sucks retail back in.

SUMMARY

• BTC and ETH saw large movements over the weekend. For now, however, the market is still failing to establish multiple back-to-back trend days.
• USDJPY is nearing central bank intervention levels. Back in October 2022, this marked the bottom for equities due to the liquidity injections back into the market. There’s more and more talk about interventions in the news outlets so this is something to be monitored closely.
  
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Rizza Carla Ramos