Weekly Crypto Market Update - September 18, 2023

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

• U.S. CPI rose 3.7% vs. 3.6% estimated YoY, the highest level since May this year. Core CPI increased 4.3% vs. 4.3% estimated YoY, down from the previous month’s 4.7%. Energy prices’ 5.6% monthly rise contributed much of the gain in headline CPI.
• ECB hiked the rate to 4% but indicated that further hikes may be off the table for now.
• FTX got court approval to sell, stake, and hedge its crypto holdings, which are worth over $3.4 billion.
• Binance.US legal and risk executives are leaving the firm according to Wall Street Journal.
• PayPal introduced on and off-ramps for Web3 payments.
• Franklin Templeton filed for Bitcoin ETF.
  

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is at the top of the range we’ve been tracking for months now (100-106). Meanwhile, we’re seeing some ranging in equities. Crypto however has started to see some relative strength with DXY at range high.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX continues to be weak. However, it does seem like the 13-14 range is the lower end of volatility for now.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After a lot of possible risks last week, it’s the first time we’ve seen BTC build constructive price action on the lower time frames. With over 6 months of large range (25-30k), it does seem like BTC could start picking up going into Q4. The halving is starting to come in sight and possible spot ETFs in Q4. Elections are also starting to get more attention which could lead to an inflow of speculative capital for crypto.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH timing seems to align with our idea on BTC. The end of September or early October seems to be the timing for the restart of trending behavior. For ETH this also aligns quite well with the ETH/BTC ratio.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has been quite weak on the more constructive BTC price action. It does seem like the early part of the recovery could be led by a BTC dominance wave. Which the market hasn’t seen since late Q4 2020.

TOTAL3 – USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is still grinding on the range lows. However, with BTC having more constructive price action, the likelihood of this breaking down has become significantly less.

TOTAL3/BTC – BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still rebuilding its structure. However, with the possible BTC.D wave and this being in an overall downtrend short term, we could see ALT/BTC ratios correct further if BTC really starts to pick up the pace. Alt’s would likely get a lot stronger if BTC goes convincingly through the 30k region.

SUMMARY

• BTC seeing more constructive price action for the first time in weeks. The likelihood of a BTC dominance wave is quite high.
• Alts will likely pick up if BTC can get through 30k convincingly.
• Q4 is usually an important part of the year for crypto. In 2020 we saw the BTC run up going into the 2021 bull market and in 2022 we saw the FTX lows in Q4.
  
  
  

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders: Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li

Edited by: Rizza Carla Ramos